New Delhi: Monsoon rains, vital for the country’s economy and the success of major crops, may exceed the norm this year if the El Nino system that brings drier weather fails to appear, as expected, forecasters say.
That would be good news for a country hit by the global recession, ensuring another large summer rice harvest and laying the foundation for a second bumper winter wheat crop, both helping sustain the two-thirds of India's 1.1 billion people who live in rural areas and depend primarily on agriculture.
The June-September monsoon is a major influence on output of key crops, economic activity and also affects sentiment in the country's financial markets. If history holds, the government's closely watched forecast--to be issued on Friday--will likely call for near- or just below-average rainfall, as it has in six of the last 9 years.
Last year's outlook proved remarkably prescient as the monsoon came in at 98 percent of the long-term average but in 2002/03, the Indian Meteorological Department failed to predict a disastrous monsoon that fell to 83 percent of the norm.
That year the worst-drought in 15 years compressed economic growth to 3.7 percent, drove inflation to a two-year high, and led to a 19 percent fall in output of summer-sown crops, including a slump in the oilseeds harvest that drove up imports.
Higher-than-normal rains the following year hoisted economic growth to more than 8 percent, and helped spark a boom that lasted until the global economic downturn hit hard last year.
While overflowing local grain silos and more abundant global harvests will make this year's crop less vital than the past several years, the economic significance has grown this year as the government--now being elected in nationwide month-long vote--will depend on the rural sector to offset an urban slowdown.
As such, the U.S. Climate Prediction Center's forecast last week that the El Nino weather pattern may not hit in 2009 was good news for the whole of India. "El Nino is major parameter. If you go back 10 years, El Nino and the monsoon had a strong connection," said B N Goswami, director, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology.
"If there is a high probability of El Nino, you may have a higher probability of a drier monsoon," he said. Average temperatures have also remained high, indicating good rainfall, according to scientists in the weather office, who requested not to be identified as they are not allowed to divulge information ahead of the official forecast.
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The director of the long-range forecast at the National Climate Centre told Reuters last month that temperatures had been higher than normal, increasing the land-sea heat contrast that is "the basic driving force" for the monsoon.
Weather officials issue their forecast on the basis of several parameters, including records kept since the 19th century, when a countrywide drought and famine in 1877 encouraged the colonial government to ask H F Blanford, the first Chief Reporter of the India Meteorological Department, to attempt monsoon forecasts.
Scientists say Indian monsoons have maintained a cycle of a weak phase for 30 years and a strong phase for the next three decades, and currently it is due to switch to a stronger phase. But the upbeat predictions are not unanimous. Some scientists say that the strong phase of the monsoon is usually triggered by certain changes in climate and temperature in the North Atlantic region, but the rainfall pattern has not intensified in recent years despite favourable conditions.
Another scientist, who did not want to be identified, said: "Our statistical models are showing that the monsoon is expected to be below normal, but it's a bit too early to say."
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