For three years after Aug 5, 2019, the mood in the security grid about Jammu and Kashmir was upbeat. No bloodshed had happened post the abrogation of Article 370, proving dire predictions wrong. Stone-pelters were nowhere to be seen and isolated incidents of targeted killing aside, terrorism was on a visible decline in the valley.
What the grid did not account for, perhaps, was regrouping and re-strategising by ISI backed groups in the Jammu region.
The events since January 1, 2023, when villagers in Dangri, Rajouri were gunned down, have set the alarm bells ringing. But the bloody June and now July that -’till recently peaceful’ – Kathua, Doda, Uddhampur have seen has made it clear that resurgence of terrorism in Jammu division will be one of the biggest internal security challenges for Modi 3.0.
So what is going wrong in Jammu division?
Re-Targeting Locations Which Had Gone Peaceful
Machedi in Kathua had not seen any terror related violence for almost two decades. At the peak of militancy police chowkis were burnt in the area, locals crossed over to Pakistani terror training camps and village defence committees were armed for self defence. In 2000, a local government contractor was gunned down by terrorists – the last big incident that locals remember. Post that, the region was called ‘peaceful.’
The Army base in the area, once active, was slowly scaled down and finally forces were withdrawn from the area while Village Defence Committees saw their arms and ammunition dwindle.
It remained peaceful till July 8, 2024, when terror struck again. Grenades were lobbed at an Army truck followed by firing. Five Indian Army personnel from Garhwal rifle were killed and six were injured.
It was the worst fear of Machedi, Kathua, Doda, Basantgarh, coming true.
The first alarm bells rang when a Village Defence Guard (VDG) member was gunned down allegedly by four terrorists at Chochru Gala in Basantgarh area of Udhampur in April this year. Eyewitness accounts suggested that four terrorists knocked the door of one Sewa Ram at Kothi, Basantgarh at around midnight on April 27 asking for directions. Next morning, the VDC members spotted them, informed the police and till forces arrived, engaged the terrorists in a gun battle. But the terrorists managed to escape after killing one civilian. A massive manhunt by joint forces did not yield results.
In June, simultaneous attacks in Kathua, Doda, Hiranagar shattered the peace in this area yet again. And, On July 8, Kathua saw yet another attack on an Army vehicle.
Old Infiltration Routes Reactivated
The police now suspect that close to 30 terrorists, split into sub groups of 3 to 4, are spread across Rajouri, Poonch, Kathua, Doda, Udhampur all the way up to Chenab valley. Once you cross Chenab Valley, the route is clear to reach Anantnag in South Kashmir and onwards. A terrorist hideout busted in Kulgam this month is being probed as part of the overall terror conspiracy stretching from Jammu to the valley.
Evidence indicates that traditional infiltration routes across International Border have been re-activated. Strict vigilance, electrified border fence had forced infiltrators to dig tunnels across LOC. Once BSF identified these tunnels and closed them, it was believed that this route would be closed for infiltration. However, it now seems ISI backed handlers have gone back to old methods of crossing the nullahs in monsoon.
Lashkar and Hizbul Mujahudeen terrorists, at the peak of terrorism in the 1990s and 2000s, crossed over from Shakargarh in Pakistani Punjab to Hiranagar in Jammu before moving to the valley. It appears that once again, the route across Tarnah Nullah from Shakargarh to Hiranagar has been activated.
On June 11, locals raised an alarm after two terrorists, knocked and asked for water from villagers at village Saida Sukhal near Koota Morh of the Police Station Hira Nagar.
Over Ground Workers Reactivated
Probe into incidents like the Ban toll plaza encounter of November 2020 gave agencies insight that usually overground workers wait for freshly infiltrated terrorists at highways near Hiranagar. Trucks carry them to Dilawar, Malhar, Machedi, Basantgarh, Doda all the way up to Chenab valley or drop them at the designated locations.
Probe into the Reasi attack of June 9 shows that overground workers who were lying low have been reactivated. Hakam Khan sheltered the Reasi terrorists for more than a week, provided them food and also helped recce the spot where the pilgrim bus was attacked. The police now suspect that many locals from Doda who had escaped to Pakistan after terrorism waned in this belt are now contacting their old associates to aid the newly infiltrated terrorists.
The help from local OGWs perhaps is the reason why the terrorists are managing to escape through the dense forests after every attack and are also managing to make natural caves as hideouts deep inside forests like in the Bhatadurian case where an Army convoy was attacked in April 2023.
The Challenge Ahead
Relative peace for almost two decades in the Jammu Division had lead to the decision of moving a large section of forces from this region to Ladakh after the Galwan strike. At one stage, the union government was actively considering withdrawal of Army from this belt. The rude shock of villagers being gunned down on January 1, 2023, in Dangri, Rajouri put the plan on hold.
But it seems the years of relative peace, the lull, was used by Pakistani handlers to re-think their “Kashmir Plan.”
The challenge for the security grid now is not just to plug infiltration points and act against OGWs but also find the right tactics to counter the jungle warfare unleashed by Lashkar and Jaish who are masquerading as People Anti Fascist front, Kashmir Tiger, The Resistance front etc in sync with Pakistan’s attempt to show that these terrorists are indigenous.
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