Just two days from polling, one thing is absolutely clear in the Karnataka assembly elections. This is a must-win election for Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). This is obvious from the amount of time and energy the party’s prime minister and star campaigner, Narendra Modi, has spent on it. He is not just campaigning, but literally camping, in the state. BJP’s last-minute push is as massive as it is impressive. But is it enough? That is the question. Regardless of whether it crosses the halfway mark on its own, the BJP seems poised to win back Karnataka.
Let us consider the major factors at play. As the state goes to the polls on May 10th, the most important swing dynamic in voter preferences is anti-incumbency. It is clear in most of the pre-poll surveys that the electorate is not entirely satisfied with the BJP government or the CM, Basavraj Bommai. The latter is seen as weak and the former as corrupt, despite all the uproar by the party against corruption. Forty percent is jocularly referred to as the alleged percentage of bribe money or extortionate kickbacks.
Whether or not this is true, the so-called double-engine Sarkar has not delivered to expectations, whether on employment or infrastructure. The BJP also faces headwinds when it comes to its “North Indian” and “Hindi belt” image. Voters’ dissatisfaction may turn into bringing back Congress to power. With its strong organisation base, plus two stalwart leaders in former CM Siddaramaiah and DK Shivakumar, in addition to party president Mallikarjun Kharge, from the state, the Congress has a slight upper hand at the hustings.
To its credit, the Congress has been able to exploit local issues such as agricultural distress, water scarcity, and the biggest of them, unemployment, especially in the countryside. Their manifesto, as does the BJP’s, therefore offers sops across the board, but especially aimed at women. The Congress also wants to capitalise on the BJP’s anti-minority image. They have promised to restore the 4 percent quota to Muslims which the Bommai government docked.
But here’s the rub — in their zeal to appease Muslim voters, the Congress also promised in its manifesto to ban Bajrang Dal. This was a huge error, which would be sure to consolidate Hindu votes in favour of the BJP. If the majority has rejected one Congress policy, it is the politics of appeasement. In fact, Bajrangi BJP would be a winning mantra. After all, who can go against Lord Hanuman in India? He is one of our favourite deities. You might get away by criticising Lord Rama once in a while, but abusing Hanuman would surely land you into a lot of trouble. Realising its mistake, the Congress has tried to make amends. Senior leader and former CM, Veerappa Moily, retracted plans to ban Bajrang Dal, while Shivakumar promised to build one Hanuman temple in each district. Clearly, the BJP has changed the narrative. No one who is perceived to be anti-Hindu has a chance to win in India.
The Congress, prepared for a hung assembly, is also stitching up alliances with smaller parties, and independent candidates. The supporters of one of the latter were caught on camera distributing currency notes to voters of the minority community. Both the BJP, which has brought in close to fifty new faces and taken considerable risks in side-lining old-timers, as well as the Congress, have fielded winnable candidates. Both sides have also intensified the mainstream and social media campaigns, though the BJP is clearly ahead of its rivals as journos visiting its war room report. BJP turncoats may also be Trojan horses, serving to bring down the Congress government if the latter is elected to power.
The biggest force multiplier for the BJP is, of course, Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The massive turnouts at his rallies are a clear indication of his appeal among the voters. But one cannot be sure if his popularity will always translate into votes or overcome the rumblings of anti-incumbency. Home Minister Amit Shah and party president, JP Nadda, have also been camping in the state. There can be no doubt in anyone’s mind how seriously the party is taking these elections. Karnataka is a crucial state for the BJP, given that it is the party’s gateway to the South and also the precursor to the 2024 general elections.
This brings me to my argument — BJP will, indeed, retain power in Karnataka. How? There are two possible scenarios. The first and most desirable one is that it will win on its own. The final push by the trimurti Modi-Shah-Nadda will rouse both the cadres and voters to push them past the finish line. If they get 113 seats or more, they will happily install a new CM, probably a Vokkeliga, as their helmsman. The administration will be tightened, corruption brought down, and the party will shore up its power and prestige in preparation for the 2024 general elections. But what happens if it does not get past the halfway mark? If it is only a matter of a few seats, the party is more than capable of managing to win over a sufficient number of MLAs to form the government.
Now we come to the second scenario. What if it is considerably short of numbers, getting no more than 85 or 90 seats as several pre-election polls have predicted? Here is where Plan B will kick in. Yes, the father-son duo of HD Deve Gowda and HD Kumaraswamy of Janata Dal (Secular), will indeed become kingmakers. But only in name. Their political survival as a family party, with a single caste appeal, is under threat. They need the BJP to continue enjoying the spoils of power. They will happily align with the BJP rather than the Congress because they know that a tie-up with the latter may prove suicidal. In such a scenario, JDS will also join the NDA in 2024, bidding for a plum cabinet post in return.
If the Karnataka electorate is as perceptive as it is development-oriented, they will try to give a clear majority to either the BJP or the Congress. This is where the Congress finds itself on the back foot. If it can’t win on its own, it will lose. It cannot afford to come out as second best at the hustings. The BJP will also try to win on its own to avoid having to give a pound of flesh to JDS, which betrayed it in the past. But the ruling party knows that even if it comes second in this fight, it has a very good chance of remaining in power. That is why both the rhetoric and the body language of its leaders do not show the nervousness of a side that is about to lose.
The writer is an author, columnist, and professor at Jawaharlal Nehru University. Views expressed are personal.
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