India’s merchandise exports are expected to grow by 11.4 per cent to hit USD 114.4 billion during the July-September quarter of the current financial year, data from Exim Bank showed. However, the rise in exports during the second quarter of FY23 could be shadowed by softening global commodity prices. Among others, a possible slowdown in major trade partners, inflationary pressures and tight monetary policies around the world could also offset the exports gain, Export-Import Bank of India (Exim Bank) said in its quarterly data.
Exim Bank releases the forecast during the first weeks of June, September, December and March for the corresponding quarters. The policy banker for the government has an in-house model to generate an Export Leading Index (ELI) for the country to track and forecast the movement in India’s exports on a quarterly basis.
ELI gauges the outlook for country’s exports. It is essentially developed as a leading indicator to forecast growth in total merchandise and other non-oil exports on a quarterly basis based on several external and domestic factors that could impact exports of the country. Exim Bank said the forecast results have been reviewed by a standing technical committee of domain experts comprising professor Saikat Sinha Roy of Jadavpur University; Sarat Dhal, Director, Department of Economic and Policy Research, RBI; professor N R Bhanumurthy, Vice Chancellor, BASE University; and Professor C Veeramani of Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research (IGIDR).
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