The United Kingdom’s economy shrank in the three months to June, figures released Friday showed a smaller-than-expected contraction that nevertheless added to jitters about the rocky months ahead. The Office for National Statistics said Britain’s gross domestic product fell by 0.1 per cent between April and June, down from 0.8 per cent growth in the previous quarter. GDP shrank by 0.6 per cent in June, and growth estimates for May were revised down from 0.5 per cent to 0.4 per cent.
The statistics office said health spending was the biggest contributor to the fall, as the government scaled down coronavirus testing, contact tracing and vaccination programs.
Many retailers also had a tough quarter, said ONS director of economic statistics Darren Morgan. These were partially offset by growth in hotels, bars, hairdressers and outdoor events across the quarter, partly as a result of celebrations of Queen Elizabeth IIs Platinum Jubilee in June.
Analysts said the decline did not necessarily mean the start of a recession, often defined as two quarters of economic contraction. The Bank of England, however, says the UK will likely fall into recession later this year as a cost-of-living crisis worsens and inflation rises above the current 9.4 per cent.
The average UK household fuel bill has risen more than 50 per cent this year as the war in Ukraine squeezes global oil and natural gas supplies, and another increase is due in October, when the averages bill is forecast to hit 3,500 pounds ($4,300) a year.
The fall in UK GDP during the second quarter was largely down to noise, said James Smith, developed markets economist at ING Economics. But the risk of recession is rising quickly, with gas futures hitting new highs for next winter and our latest estimates suggesting the household energy price cap could come close to 5,000 pounds in the second quarter of next year. Much now depends on fiscal policy announcements in the autumn.
Anti-poverty campaigners, consumer groups and opposition politicians are pressing Prime Minister Boris Johnsons Conservative government to help people cope with soaring bills. But Johnson is in his final weeks as prime minister and says significant fiscal decisions must be left to his successor, who will take office in September.
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