Aonla Lok Sabha Elections 2024: BJP's Dharmendra Kashyap Looking for Hat-Trick

The Aonla Lok Sabha constituency is one of 80 parliamentary constituencies in Uttar Pradesh. This is a General category seat and comprises part of Bareilly district and part of Budaun district. The Aonla Lok Sabha constituency includes five Assembly segments, four of which are held currently by the BJP (Dataganj, Faridpur-SC, Bithari Chainpur, Aonla) and one by the Samajwadi Party (Shekhupur). The constituency will vote in the third phase of general elections on May 7, 2024.

Sitting MP — Dharmendra Kashyap (BJP)

Candidates — Dharmendra Kashyap (BJP), Neeraj Maurya (SP), Abid Ali (BSP)

Political dynamics

• BJP: The saffron party has been winning Aonla since 2009, the year Maneka Gandhi wrested it from Janata Dal (United).
• She had then moved to Pilibhit and Dharmendra Kashyap won from Aonla in 2014 on a BJP ticket.
• Ironically, Kashyap was the SP candidate who lost against Maneka Gandhi by just 7,600 votes in the 2009 elections.
• In the 2019 elections, Kashyap had defeated nearest rival, BSP’s Ruchi Veera, by 1,13,743 votes to retain the constituency. He had received 51.07% of the total votes.
• Dharmendra Kashyap is now in the hunt for a hat-trick from Aonla with the BJP giving him a ticket for the third time running.
• Kashyap had begun his electoral career with the Assembly election win from Sunha seat on the BSP symbol in 2002.
• In 2003, he joined the Samajwadi Party with 36 other MLAs and was made chairman of UP Bhumi Sudhar Nigam with the status of Minister of State by then chief minister Mulayam Singh Yadav.
• He was also elected chairman of UP Cooperatives Union and director of All India Cooperative Union.
• Dharmendra Kashyap had quit the SP before 2014 elections as the party dropped him as a candidate in favour of Kunwar Sarvraj Singh.
• He had, however, claimed he quit the party over Mulayam Singh Yadav’s “failure” to fulfil the promise of providing Scheduled Caste benefits to the Kashyap community.
• He eventually joined the BJP, winning the 2014 and 2019 elections from Aonla.
• In August 2021, a case was registered against Dharmendra Kashyap and his associates in Uttarakhand’s Almora district for allegedly creating a ruckus at the Jageshwar Dham temple and misbehaving with the priests.
• A video purportedly showing Kashyap and his associates engaging in a heated argument with the temple priests had gone viral on social media.
• The saffron party has to do at least as well in these elections as the last time in Uttar Pradesh to meet Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s target of winning 370 seats in the new Parliament.
• PM Modi’s candidature from Varanasi has a major impact on other UP constituencies as well.
• The new Ram Temple in Ayodhya strengthens the party’s Hindutva plank, a factor it can bank on for Hindu consolidation in Muslim-dominated seats like Aonla.
• The BJP will cash in on the perception that the Yogi Adityanath government has “zero tolerance” towards crime.
• Development of infrastructure, particularly highways and airports, in recent years improves the BJP’s prospects.
• Samajwadi Party: The SP had last won the Aonla Lok Sabha seat in the 1999 general elections with Sarvraj Singh as the candidate. Singh had won the 2004 elections as well but this time on a Janata Dal (United) ticket.
• Before 1999, the Samajwadi Party has won the seat in 1996.
• The party has this time announced Neeraj Maurya as its candidate for the Aonla seat.
• Neeraj Maurya is a two-time MLA from Shahjahanpur’s Jalalabad Assembly constituency, which he won in 2012 and 2007 on BSP tickets.
• In 2017, he quit the BSP to join the BJP. Five years later, Maurya jumped ship again, this time to the Samajwadi Party.
• The SP is contesting the polls in an alliance with the Congress this time as part of the INDIA bloc, with the grand old party attempting to regain its lost ground in Uttar Pradesh.
• Among the factors working for the SP is its strong base in the OBC and Muslim communities.
• The Yadav family, too, appears to have buried its differences in recent years and has put forward a united front.
• The party, however, faces the accusation of being partial to Muslims and harbouring “criminals” within its ranks.
• Its recently forged alliance with the Congress could help avoid splitting of votes, particularly within the Muslim community, in several constituencies like Aonla.
• BSP: The Bahujan Samaj Party has never been able to win this constituency since the outfit’s formation in 1984.
• Looking for a maiden win in the Muslim-dominated seat, the party has nominated Abid Ali to contest from Aonla.
• BSP’s Aonla campaign got off to a troubled start with the returning officer initially rejecting Ali’s nomination as another person, named Satyaveer Singh, had filed his nomination papers as the BSP candidate.
• As per reports, BSP chief Mayawati had to step in and clear the confusion with on a video call with the returning officer in which she endorsed Ali as the official party candidate.
• Abid Ali and party district president Rajiv Kumar Singh claim the confusion was the result of a “conspiracy”.
• Ali has alleged that Satyaveer Singh was acting at the behest of his Samajwadi Party rival for the seat, Neeraj Maurya.
• An FIR was meanwhile registered against Singh for allegedly forging Mayawati’s signature on the nomination form.
• In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BSP contested the polls along with the Samajwadi Party and the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD).
• This time, Mayawati jolted the INDIA bloc by declaring that the BSP would contest the upcoming Lok Sabha elections on its own. The Congress had been seeking to rope in the BSP in the opposition grouping.
• Mayawati’s decision also dashed any hopes of uniting all non-BJP forces to put up a strong opposition against the BJP and opened the gates for a third force in the key Hindi heartland state of Uttar Pradesh.
• The BSP supremo, however, hasn’t ruled out a post-poll alliance.
• She recently taunted the SP for fielding Hindus in “Muslim-dominated constituencies” and Muslims on seats where Hindus dominate.
• She has also urged Muslim voters not to split their votes, saying if the community votes for the Congress, “then the BJP will get the benefit”.
• Despite a bad showing in the past few elections, the party enjoys an enviable support base among Dalit voters.
• The BSP, however, relies heavily on Mayawati as its leader, with virtually no second rung of leadership.
• Dismal performance in the 2022 Assembly elections, its dwindling presence in Parliament and the state legislature has also demoralised party workers.
• Depending on its performance, the BSP has a chance of striking a post-poll understanding with the winning party or coalition.
• Muslim votes: The BSP’s 2024 list includes seven Muslim candidates on the seats that have a sizeable Muslim population, including Abid Ali from Aonla.
• The move is designed to checkmate the INDIA bloc by consolidating Muslim votes in western and north-western Uttar Pradesh constituencies that have a strong Muslim presence.
• Muslims constitute 19.26% of Uttar Pradesh’s total population — which stands at 19.98 crore. There are at least 20 Lok Sabha and 85-100 Assembly constituencies where the population of Muslim voters varies between 25-50%, including Aonla at 29%.
• The biggest concern for the SP-Congress alliance will be to prevent the scattering of Muslim votes because its victory on many Muslim-dominated seats can be possible only if the Muslim votes are united in its favour.
• This time the biggest challenge for the Samajwadi Party is to keep the Muslim voters united in its favour.
• A major reason for this is that since 2019, the SP has not been as vocal on Muslim-related issues as was expected from it.
• In 2019, the BJP had got the benefit of a split in Muslim votes in some seats of western and north-western UP, and its candidates registered wins from Aonla, Muzaffarnagar, Kairana, Meerut, Bulandshahr, Baghpat and Aligarh Lok Sabha seats.
• The BJP is looking to tap into Muslim voters this time too. UP BJP minority morcha president Kunwar Basit has claimed that the party received about 10% votes of the Muslim community in 2019.
• This time the target is to increase it to 15%, especially the Pasmanda Muslims, who have benefited the most from government schemes.
• Pasmanda Muslims: PM Modi has time and again said that Pasmanda Muslims, who are backward, are not treated as equal because of vote bank politics of opposition parties.
• ‘Pasmanda’, a term for backward classes among Muslims, often finds a mention in Prime Minister Modi’s speeches, at party forum as well as government events, and how the government has worked for the deprived without any discrimination.
• The BJP believes it is in a position to make inroads among them in the Lok Sabha polls, a view emboldened by its win in Lok Sabha by polls in Muslim-dominated seats of Azamgarh and Rampur in Uttar Pradesh.
• The BJP’s Minority Morcha has been holding events to connect with ‘Pasmanda’, who are over 80 per cent of the country’s Muslim population, and its leaders believe that a new narrative focussed around the theme of development can be productive.
• Modi factor: Prime Minister Narendra Modi campaigned for BJP candidates in Bareilly, Aonla and Shahjahanpur on April 25.
• Addressing a rally in Rajasthan’s Banswara earlier, Prime Minister Modi suggested that if the Congress comes to power, it would redistribute wealth of people to Muslims and cited former prime minister Manmohan Singh’s remark that the minority community had the first claim on the country’s resources.
• PM Modi alleged the Congress plans to give people’s hard-earned money and valuables to “infiltrators” and “those who have more children”.
• The Congress hit back at PM Modi over his remarks, saying after facing “disappointment” in the first phase of Lok Sabha polls, the PM has now resorted to “lies” and “hate speech” to divert people from the real issues.

Key constituency issues

• Stray cattle: The menace of stray cattle persists in almost every constituency of Uttar Pradesh, but in Aonla, locals have sought to turn the tables on lawmakers and ministers, giving them a taste of the headache.
• In August last year, angry locals in Aonla tehsil let loose stray cattle on the road to block the convoy of Uttar Pradesh animal husbandry minister Dharampal Singh to draw his attention to the problem. Singh is MLA from the Aonla Assembly seat.
• Ironically, the protest had unfolded when the minister was on his way to lay the foundation stone of an animal polytechnic institution where animals would get medical care.
• The Aonla MLA had claimed the cattle were brought to disrupt his journey as part of a “conspiracy”.
• Poor roads and connectivity: The relatively underdeveloped Aonla constituency is burdened with run-down roads. Narrow roads with potholes and uneven ground leads to congestion, travel delays, dust pollution, and accidents.
• Slow infrastructural development: Infrastructural projects in the region, once started, are often left incomplete or take years to finish. A bridge being built to connect to towns in the region was left incomplete for a very long period of time, with no heed being given to its completion.
• The sparse road network in the region, coupled with scarce train services and inadequate bus routes, isolate the area’s residents. Often having to travel to other areas to get a train or a flight, transport in and out of Aonla is a concern for its residents.
• Poor roads and limited networks make it difficult to transport farmer produce to nearby mills, as well as to bigger markets to sell their crops. This limits the growth of the industry, keeping it cyclically underdeveloped.
• Education: The poor state of public schools, no new schools or Kendriya Vidyalayas being built, and lack of colleges for girls across the Aonla constituency is a problem for its residents. The existing schools have run down infrastructure and limited facilities.
• The availability of teachers, the pay given to them, and vacant teaching positions further worsen the education standards in the region.
• CAA: In a big pre-poll move, the rules for the implementation of the Citizenship (Amendment) Act, 2019 were notified in March, four years after the contentious law was passed by Parliament to fast-track citizenship for undocumented non-Muslim migrants from Pakistan, Bangladesh and Afghanistan who came to India before December 31, 2014.
• The CAA is a huge factor in Muslim-dominated constituencies across Uttar Pradesh, including Aonla.
• Top central government ministers and senior BJP leaders have been reiterating during campaigning that no Muslim living in India will lose their citizenship.
• BJP ministers and leaders have accused the opposition parties of creating confusion in the community about the Citizenship (Amendment) Act.
• Law & Order: The brutal murder of two minor brothers in UP’s Budaun has become the talking point in western and northwestern Uttar Pradesh with the Samajwadi Party targeting the BJP over the law and order situation. Aonla seat comprises part of the Budaun district.
• Improved law and order and tough action against gangsters and mafias has been one of the BJP’s top pitches in Uttar Pradesh.
• Ram Mandir: Eyeing Hindu consolidation in Muslim-dominated seats, the BJP has been hoping to reap the electoral dividend of constructing the Ram Temple at the Ram Janmabhoomi in UP’s Ayodhya as it has been promising in multiple manifestos.
• It is also reminding voters that the Samajwadi Party and Congress “snubbed” the consecration ceremony of the temple in January, pegging it as an insult of Lord Ram himself.
• Uniform Civil Code: After abolishing special status for J&K in 2019 and constructing the Ram Temple in Ayodhya this January, the BJP has turned its attention to its third legacy election promise — a Uniform Civil Code.
• In April last year, Prime Minister Narendra Modi himself made a strong pitch for UCC, saying the Constitution also mentions of having equal rights for all citizens.
• Union Home Minister Amit Shah too recently reminded voters of PM Modi’s “guarantee” to bring uniform civil code in the country on the same lines as Uttarakhand.
• In April 2022, Uttar Pradesh Deputy Chief Minister Keshav Prasad Maurya had revealed that the Yogi Adityanath government is thinking seriously in the direction of implementing a Uniform Civil Code in the state.
• During the Assembly election campaign in 2022, Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath, too, had also spoken in favour of one law for the entire country and had said the matter would be taken up at the right time.
• With neighbouring Uttarakhand implementing one in March this year, the prospect of a UCC for Uttar Pradesh has become a factor in Lok Sabha elections, especially in minority-dominated constituencies like Aonla.
• The issue of the implementation of the Uniform Civil Code does not enjoy the Opposition support besides that of Muslim bodies.

Voter demographics

Social composition

SC — 14.27%

ST — 0.06%

Religious composition

Buddhist — 0.08%

Christian — 0.27%

Jain — 0.02%

Muslim — 29.32%

Sikh — 0.39%

Literacy rate

46.38%

Major infra projects in Aonla

• IFFCO Nano Urea Liquid Plant: In February 2023, Union Minister of Chemicals and Fertilizers Dr Mansukh Mandaviya had inaugurated the IFFCO Nano Urea Liquid Plants at Aonla and Phulpur in Uttar Pradesh.
• Last month, the government has notified specifications of a new product ‘Nano Urea Plus’ fertiliser to be manufactured by cooperative IFFCO in the country in the next three years.
• IFFCO’s Nano Urea Plus is an advanced formulation of Nano Urea in which nutrition is redefined to meet crop nitrogen requirement at critical growth phases.
• It also enhances the availability and efficiency of micronutrients. It is a chlorophyll charger, yield booster and helps in climate smart farming.
• According to an IFFCO official, the commercial production of the new product will start soon at its Kalol plant in Gujarat, Aonla and Phulpur in Uttar Pradesh.
• Oxygen plants: Cooperative fertiliser major IFFCO is planning to set up four medical oxygen plants with an investment of about Rs 30 crore in the next 15 days in Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat and Odisha, in a bid to supply it for free to hospitals.
• The plant will be put up at Kalol (Gujarat), Aonla and Phulpur (Uttar Pradesh) and at Paradeep (Odisha).
• Compressed Biogas Plant: Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited (HPCL) inaugurated a biomass-based Compressed Biogas (CBG) plant in Budaun in January 2024.
• The plant is spread across 50 acres and has a processing capacity of 100 tons per day of lignocellulosic biomass. It can produce 14 metric tons per day of CBG and 65 metric tons per day of solid manure.
• The plant is part of the National Biofuel Policy 2018, which aims to reduce India’s dependence on imported fossil fuels by 10%.
• Multi-product pipeline project: In 2021, Prime Minister Narendra Modi inaugurated the Bina-Panki multi-product pipeline project operated by the Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited (BPCL).
• The pipeline ensures the supply of petrol and diesel to Aonla, Kanpur, Lucknow, Shahjahanpur, Baitalpur and Gonda.
• The 356-km pipeline originates from Bina Refinery in Madhya Pradesh and terminates at Panki Depot in Kanpur.
• Established at the cost of Rs 1,524 crore, it caters to the demand of petroleum products from northern states and has a capacity of 3.5 million metric tonne per annum.

Check Lok Sabha Election 2024 Phase 3 Schedule, Key Candidates And Constituencies At News18 Website.