Patna: There is a new found cockiness in the steps of Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) leaders after the third phase of polling in Bihar Assembly elections. Buoyed by reports of the party doing very well in the polling on October 28, they are claiming that the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance is all set to get a massive majority in Bihar Assembly.
There are genuine reasons for NDA leaders to be happy as the battleground in the fourth phase in which 55 seats spread across seven districts of north and northwestern Bihar will vote on November 1 are still swaying under the Narendra Modi wave.
Modi’s rallies in Champaran and Muzaffarpur helped the NDA in picking up the momentum even as the Janata Dal United-Rashtriya Janata Dal-Congress Mahagathbandhan has been banking on Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s track record and RJD supremo Lalu Prasad’s charisma to see their candidates through.
There was some apprehension in the NDA camp after the first two phases where the Mahagathbandhan is reported to have done much better than expected. Although none of the NDA leaders officially accept that Mahagathbandhan may have taken the lead in the voting on October 12 and 16 but in off the record conversation they admit that polling in many of the seats where their candidates were expected to do well was not up to their expectations.
On the other hand JDU and RJD pooh pooh NDA's claims of winning most of the seats in the third round even though most of the areas which voted on October 28. But there is near unanimity among political parties, analysts and even voters that NDA’s best show will be in the third and fourth phase and the alliance is going for the maximum. In cricket parlance it is the slog overs for the NDA before the battle moves to the Mithilanchal-Kosi-Seemanchal belt which has been the traditional stronghold of the Mahagathbandhan.
In the fourth phase the districts which will vote are Siwan, Goplaganj, Muzaffarpur, Sitamarhi, Sheohar, Purvi Champaran and Paschim Champaran. During the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the Modi wave was perhaps the strongest in these areas of Bihar and people are still in awe of the Prime Minister. Even the local MPs enjoy a very good reputation giving the NDA reasons to cheer.
While Siwan, once infamous for criminal-politician Mohammad Shahabuddin, is witnessing a triangular contest in all the eight seats. The area has a strong communist vote bank comprising of the Dalits/Mahadalits and extremely backwards castes. Both Mahagathbandhan and NDA candidates are hoping that communist parties will cut into the votes of their rival making it easy for them. But in a couple of seats like Ziradei and Darauli, the communist parties are in a position to spring a big surprise.
Lalu’s home district of Gopalganj is no longer a cakewalk for the Mahagathbandhan. Strong NDA candidates have made the race extremely close although some independents are troubling both the major alliances.
But the NDA is eyeing major gains in Muzaffarpur, Sitamarhi, Purvi Champaran and Paschim Champaran. In many seats the Mahagathbandhan is facing rebel candidates who are proving to be a big headache. Modi’s rallies have also helped in generating a mini wave of sorts in favour of NDA aspirants although in several rural areas, the fight is tough because Nitish still enjoys a very high rating.
While NDA is claiming of sweeping the fourth phase, Mahagathbandhan leaders say they will better the 2010 tally.
In the 2010 Assembly elections, the JDU had bagged 25 seats while 26 had seen BJP candidates emerge victorious. Independents had bagged three and RJD one.
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