One late afternoon in December, I met a top state-level Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) leader in Guwahati. Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar's win was fresh in our minds then, so I asked him what was their gameplan, now that Bihar model did not work. He said the top leadership has agreed to calm down.
Local leadership would be the face of the election and the campaign won't be micromanaged by the 'High Command'. It sounded like a bit of fantasy back then, but as the campaign progressed, his words began to ring true.
If we look into the two worst defeats of BJP since 2014, we would find a lot of simarities. Both in Delhi and Bihar, the campaign revolved around Prime Minister Narendra Modi. There was a PM rally almost every other day, Amit Shah would micromanage each and every cog in the electoral machinery. Though Kiran Bedi was projected as the CM face, it was seen as a direct battle between Kejriwal and Modi.
In Bihar, there was not even a CM candidate. Even the big ticket interviews were given by party president Amit Shah. Thus easily giving political strategist Prashant Kishor the alliterative barb 'Bihari vs Bahari'.
The Congress in Assam wanted an encore. Right after Bihar elections, Assam CM Tarun Gogoi tried to make it a battle between him and Modi. 'Where is Ache Din?' screamed banners across the state.Read: Prashant Kishor Ready to Part Ways With Congress if his Style is Cramped
But BJP refused to be drawn into this. A personal attack on Tarun Gogoi was all that the Congress wanted. An insult to the grand old man of Assam politics would have helped Gogoi the way the 'Maut ka Saudagar' remark helped Modi's fortunes in 2014.
But alas! Apart from one instance, Modi refused to succumb to the temptation. In fact, both Modi and Shah kept their campaign pitch rather subdued.
The bulk of the campaign was on the shoulders of two relatively young men, Himanta Biswasarma and Sarbanada Sonowal. Though their lack of mutual trust is the worst kept secret of the party, they did put in their heart and soul to the campaign.
In fact, through the campaign it also became clear that Himanta was the only leader who was accepted well in both Barak and Brahmaputra valley. With Sarbananda being the chief ministerial candidate, this might become one of the biggest headaches for the party in the coming few days. But that's for another day, and another story.
On the other hand, Congress was heavily dependent on senior Gogoi, who fought a valiant and spirited battle. Throughout the campaign he tried to bait Modi into making personal attacks. When it did not happen, there was no Plan B. In the end, the fatigue of 15 years of his rule was evident.
But the old man is still very positive. Inspite of various exit poll projections, he remains confident. In fact, on Monday, he also gave me a break-up of the seats where he compensate for likely losses in Upper Assam.
When I travelled the length and breath of the state, I did sense an undercurrent of change, but a 90-30 margin looks a little far-fetched. And, after all, who can forget the story about a certain AGP leader, who was so sure he would be the CM that he got his suit stitched a day before the counting. But when results were declared in 2011, not only was Gogoi the winner by a huge margin, the AGP couldn't even become the main opposition party.
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