New Delhi: It is already mid-June and there are no signs of torrential Monsoon rains in Kerala, Karnataka, Goa and Maharashtra. The Monsoon, which is almost a week late, is also very weak.
It is raining in Kerala, coastal Karnataka and most parts of the Western Ghats for the past 3-4 days. It has just arrived in Goa and Konkan region of Maharashtra. The delayed Monsoon has already caused a lot of worry among the people. The weather department is also predicting a below normal Monsoon of 93 per cent this season.
The delayed Monsoon has also slowed down due to an unexpected Cyclone Nanauk. According to Met department experts, Nanauk cyclone in the Arabian Sea is expected to interrupt the advancement of the monsoon. They claim that the cyclone is extracting moisture, brought by the monsoon, due to which less rain is expected in some parts of West coast and Western Ghats of India.
After a delay of nearly a week, the southwest monsoon arrived in Kerala last week. However, as the conditions were not favourable for further advancement, it took brief halt in Kerala and advanced towards Karnataka, Goa and finally entered Maharashtra, two days ago. On Wednesday, the monsoon entered parts of south Konkan and Goa, but it could not made further advancement as the Nanauk cyclone gained strength.
"The cyclone is moving towards north west region which is away from the country. After it moves further towards North West, the conditions will again become favourable for advancement of the monsoon. The position of the cyclone is very important. If cyclone Nanauk would have been along the coastline, it would have resulted in a good amount of rain along the coastal areas and in some interior parts of the country as well. However, the cyclone is moving in a north west direction, towards Oman, which is likely to have an adverse effect on the rainfall activity," a top scientist said.
Two metropolitan cities, Bangalore and Mumbai are yet to receive the first showers of Monsoon. Bangalore is witnessing a cloudy atmosphere and the heat has subsided.
Weather office is predicting that Bangalore will get Monsoon rains in the next 24-48 hours. In Mumbai, cyclone led to unusual tidal waves in some parts of the city.
Chief amount of rainfall in the last 24 hours in some parts of India
Cumulative Rainfall: Total rainfall during the past 24 hours reported by 404 stations in the plains is 114.4 Centimeters. Normal for these 404 stations is 238.6 cms.
Ponnani 11, Taliparamba 10.2, Mangalooru AP 9.7, Sangameshwar Devrukh 9.3, Bantwal &Rajapur 9.2 each, Hulikal ARG 6.8, Utnoor 4.7, Chopda 4.4, Panjim (Goa) 4.0, Kottigehara 3.3,CIAL Kochi 3.0, Tiruvallur ARG 2.6, R.K.Pet 2.3, Asifabad 2.1, Dhule 2.0, Khanapur & Londa 0.9each, Hubli R 0.6, Jalgaon 0.5, Medikeri 0.4, Araku Valley and Jafrabad ARG 0.3 each, Belgaum(Sambra), Porbandar AP & Soegaon 0.2 each, Quant, Sillod and Umari 0.1 each.
India: Dry spell ahead? 
IMD: Rainfall in June-September is likely to be below normal at 93 per cent of the long period average. Rainfall during this period could be the lowest in four years.
-In April, IMD had predicted a below normal monsoon at 95 per cent.
-July is likely to see 93 per cent of normal rainfall.
- August may see 96 per cent of normal rainfall
- Although the south west monsoon has arrived in Kerala, it is expected to weaken.
- IMD: El Nino effect is expected to further intensify in the coming days.
Below normal monsoon? 
- Northwest India is likely to be worst hit with just 85 per centrains.
- Northeast India - 99 per cent
- Central India- 94 per cent
- Southern peninsula- 93 per cent
Government prepares for dry spell 
Government advisory to states
- Ensure availability of seeds for meeting contingency cropping requirement.
- Construct water harvesting structures, promote cultivation of less water consuming crops, replace faulty pumps.
- Keep aside 10 per cent of agricultural funds for undertaking appropriate interventions in case of a drought-like situation.
Agriculture Minister: Government fully prepared 
- Storage position in major reservoirs across the country is satisfactory except in southern India
- Crop contingency plans developed for 500 of 540 agricultural districts
- Enhancement of ceiling on seeds subsidy to partially recompense the farmer
- Department of Agriculture regularly monitoring rainfall and area under sowing at district level
- Rice stocks in central pool much above the requisite buffer norm
- Additional funds being allocated to rainfall deficit states
Weak monsoon: Impact on economy 
- Poor monsoons may adversely affect food production and thus aggravate food inflation.
- If rains are 10-15 per cent below normal, then agricultural growth could be closer to 0 per cent or even negative.
- Consumer price inflation could inch up by as much as 1 per cent from earlier forecast of 8 per cent by early next year
- High food inflation could force the RBI to hold on to high interest rates for a longer time than anticipated
- Farmers would lose their income from sub-normal rainfall
What is El Nino
- El Nino is a weather condition that coincides with warming of sea surface temperatures that affect wind patterns
- A strong El Nino can cause drought-like conditions
- IMD has forecast a 60 per cent probability of El Nino this year along with a below-normal monsoon projection
Source: Skymet
El Nino impact on monsoon in India
2004- El Nino- Drought
2009- El Nino- Severe drought
2012- Mild El Nino- Below normal monsoon
Source: Skymet####
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