The bookings are done, maps in place and bags almost packed — confined for months courtesy the coronavirus pandemic and subsequent lockdowns, it’s time for “revenge travel” all over the globe as people get ready to ditch the safety of their homes and make up for lost time.
If you’re one of those who were looking forward to their next trip, there’s some bad news. If the latest warning by ICMR is true, you may have to abandon your travel plans, once again.
A study by researchers from the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) and Imperial College London says ‘revenge travel’ could worsen the third Covid-19 wave in India, and cause a higher peak between the months of February and March next year.
Published last month in the peer-reviewed Journal of Travel Medicine, the study sought to model the impact of domestic travel on a potential third Covid-19 wave in India. The objectives included recognising the potential risks associated with increase in revenge tourism. ICMR Director General Balram Bhargava is among the researchers who carried out the study, The Print reported.
For this, the researchers created a mathematical model that sought to recreate what would happen in a hypothetical state of India that resembles Himachal Pradesh based on the dynamics of its first and second waves — including the much lower seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 there compared to the rest of the country.
While India’s second Covid wave was severe, its impact in smaller states with low population density was less intense, the researchers note. Not only this, cases in popular tourist destinations such as Himachal Pradesh saw a delayed peak, they add.
“There are undoubtedly important benefits as society gradually returns to normal, in India and elsewhere; domestic travel to holiday destinations provides benefits not just for visitors, but also for local economies that have been under considerable stress for over a year,” the team wrote in the study.
“A shared sense of responsibility, amongst visitors, residents and local authorities, will go a long way towards protecting the welfare of the country as a whole,” the researchers added.
Wanderlust? Only if you must
For the team, revenge travel is a worrying trend when it involves destinations in Himalayan mountain towns, which have kept numbers low in previous waves.
The researchers say the relaxation of state-level travel restrictions could give rise to a third wave on its own. However, a sudden increase in population density due to tourists or mass congregations on account of social, political or religious reasons could worsen the third-wave.
Data from Himachal Pradesh suggests that, in a typical holiday season, tourism can increase the population in the state by as much as 40 per cent.
Under these circumstances, the third-wave peak could increase by up to 47 per cent during the holiday season, and could occur two weeks earlier, compared to a scenario where easing of restrictions happens off-season.
In the worst-case scenario, where researchers take into account that India’s high population density has a stronger effect on transmission, the third-wave peak could go up 103 per cent, and the timing of the epidemic peak could be hastened by four weeks, compared to a scenario of easing restrictions in the absence of holiday travel.
An IIT-Mandi study last year had also suggested that domestic travel had a major role in the spread of Covid-19 in India.
So, another year of being home-bound?
Researchers say the focus should be on responsible travelling with holidayers carrying a recent Covid-negative test as well as proof of vaccination. States could also be guided on how they could best mitigate travel-related risks.
According to the industry experts, when people travel with family, they are willing to spend more on accommodation to ensure that the stay is safe, the room is santised and comfortable.
While tourism is improving on one hand, locals in tourist areas are worried about new people coming from different corners of the country amid the Covid-19 pandemic.
Not just an India phenomenon
After months or even years spent largely at home, professionals across the UK are marking their calendars, totting up their savings, and extricating themselves from work commitments in order to explore the world, reported the Independent.
Revenge travel began as an American trend as foreign countries opened their doors quicker to the US than to the UK. “Americans are hitting the roads and skies in droves,” reported Forbes in June. It defined the trend as a perfect storm of pent-up demand, stored-up annual leave, saved-up cash and fully-vaxxed confidence.
As Conde Nast Traveler US heralded the rise of the “adult gap year”, a Eurofins survey of 2,000 UK residents found that more than half are saving all of their spare cash for their next adventure, with an average travel fund of £2,543 already squirrelled away.
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