Will Omicron Fuel Third Wave or Milder Infections? Experts Weigh in on 'Inevitable' as Cases Rise

Across countries, cases fuelled by the Omicron variant of the novel coronavirus are rising with Israel becoming the third country to report a death due to the latest variant on Wednesday. Experts back home, however, are saying while a third wave fuelled by Omicron is inevitable in India, it may be less severe than the previous wave that wreaked havoc in the country. Experts have said the third wave of Covid-19 will likely hit India early in the new year.

READ MORE | Omicron Deaths Reported in 3 Countries So Far; Experts Warn of More Fatalities | See List

India has recorded 236 cases of the Omicron variant of coronavirus across 16 states and UTs so far out of which 104 people have recovered or migrated, according to the Union Health Ministry data updated on Thursday. Maharashtra has recorded the maximum 65 cases of the Omicron variant, followed by Delhi at 64, Telangana 24, Karnataka 19, Rajasthan 21 and Kerala 15.

The ministry data also showed that India recorded 7,495 new coronavirus infections taking the total tally of cases to 3,47,65,976, while the active cases increased to 78,291. The death toll has climbed to 4,78,759 with 434 fresh fatalities, the data stated.

Rise in Rt value in some states

Tweeting about the rise in Rt value, or effective reproduction value of the coronavirus, in some states on Tuesday, epidemiologist Dr Giridhar Babu listed those states with increased Rt value on December 19 as compared to December 13. An Rt value of 1 means one patient can spread the disease to one other person. Dr Babu said, “States with an increase in the RT values on December 19th as compared to Dec 13th are Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Uttarakhand, Tripura, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Odisha, Mizoram, Arunachal Pradesh, West Bengal, Manipur & Nagaland. India’s effective RT is 0.89 as on Dec 19.”

He also talked about the increase in the weekly average percentage in daily Covid-19 cases in some states. He tweeted, “The weekly average % in daily cases as compared to previous week’s average increased in these states.

Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Maharashtra. Highest percentage change observed in UP and UKhand. Caveat: dependent on Surveillance & varying testing rates.”

What will Covid graph look like in coming days?

According to experts, these two factors were an indicator of how the Covid graph will look like in the next one month. But they also said there was no cause for panic yet.

According to a report published in Times of India, Dr Shashank Joshi, member of a state Covid task force, said: “The third wave seemed remote a few months ago, but the emergence of the variant that spreads five times more rapidly than Delta has raised the possibility of cluster outbreak and the third wave.”

The Centre on Tuesday alerted states and UTs that the new variant was three times more transmissible than the highly infectious Delta variant. In a letter, union health secretary Rajesh Bhushan advised states to activate war rooms, keep analysing all trends and surges, no matter how small and keep taking proactive action at district or local levels.

Dr Vishal Rao, a member of the genomic surveillance committee in Karnataka, where Omicron was first reported in India, said there were two possibilities with the new variant: a full-blown third wave or milder infections due to high vaccination coverage.

In a report published by The Indian Express, Dr Rao said while there was a global spike in Covid-19 cases due to Omicron, it was under control in India. “There are two possible outcomes in the future. If the number of Omicron cases passes the critical limit, we will have widespread community transmission and a full-blown third wave. However, the other possibility is with a significant number of natural infections of Delta during the second wave and an increase in vaccinations in the second half of 2021, we have added protection against Omicron and we may not see the kind of spike that other countries are currently witnessing,” the report quoted him as saying.

What the Centre is saying

“Based on current scientific evidence, the VoC (Variant of Concern) Omicron is at least 3 times more transmissible than the Delta VOC. Besides, the Delta VOC is still present in different parts of the country. Hence, even greater foresight, data analysis, dynamic decision making and strict & prompt containment action is required at the local and district level. The decision making at the State/UT and district level must be very prompt and focused,” stated the letter sent to states/UTs by the union health secretary.

The Centre has asked states to focus on “strategic areas of intervention”, including containment, testing, tracking, surveillance, clinical management, vaccination and following Covid-appropriate norms. It has also asked states to strengthen health infrastructure in case of a sudden surge and stressed on increasing bed capacity, ambulances, “mechanism for seamless shifting of patients, availability and operational readiness of oxygen equipment, a buffer stock of drugs”.

Slump in Covid cases in India?

The daily rise in new infections was recorded below 15,000 over the past 55 days. Active cases comprise 0.22 per cent of total infections, the lowest since March 2020, while the national Covid-19 recovery rate has further improved to 98.4 per cent, the highest since March 2020, the health ministry said. A decline of 907 cases has been recorded in the active Covid-19 caseload in a span of 24 hours.

While 87 countries have reported more cases in the last two weeks as compared to the previous 14 days, India in contrast has registered record-low cases.

One reason for the low number of cases could be that the dominant variant in India is still Delta and not Omicron. Indian Council of Medical Research on December 18 said Delta is still the dominant strain circulating in the country and Omicron had not yet replaced it, meaning that current Covid-19 measures and vaccines would remain effective.

(With PTI inputs)

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