There’s one thing about Pakistan. It never ceases to entertain. Even as the economy slides into default, its political establishment is busy with the usual theatrics, this time with former Prime Minister Imran Khan playing ‘catch me if you can’ as the authorities — apparently — are trying to arrest him. All of this would be hilarious if it were not for the fact that other schisms are also apparent, as a suicide bomber killed nine policemen in Balochistan, while a radical student group of the Jamaat-e-Islami attacked students celebrating Holi at Punjab University. Worse things followed, such as the Lahore authorities refusing permission to hold a women’s march because the Jamiatis objected. That’s another disaster.
Toshakhana Reference Case
Here’s the immediate issue. In a manner typical of South Asia, Imran Khan has had multiple accusations thrown at him, including a charge that he had rifled gifts given to him as prime minister. The ‘Toshakhana Reference’ by the Election Commission of Pakistan. A four-member bench then declared Imran’s National Assembly seat vacant since he ‘misled’ officials about the gifts he received from foreign dignitaries during his tenure as the prime minister. Apparently, neither did his office deign to provide details when he was in the seat, claiming it would jeopardise international relations, a statement that verges of the ridiculous.
The trouble is that the people, at large, are hardly likely to worry about the EC’s charges of ‘offence of corrupt practices’, for a few expensive trifles, when compared to the loot that was (again allegedly) grabbed by Nawaz Sharif and his family. Remember that he had to pay $10.6 million in just fines on a few corruption charges that held, and that accounts of unimaginable wealth – including expensive apartments in London – were trailed before the tired eyes of Pakistanis on television. With the Sharifs still in political play, what is evident is despite extensive digging, the state has been unable to find anything else, other than a few gifts — which include watches sold illegally for $36 million — to incarcerate him.
Support from unexpected quarters
Not that the entire state seems to be willing. The Islamabad High Court has been virtually apologetic about its role in the proceedings, declaring that Khan at least be asked to present himself in court for the charges to be framed. Khan’s lawyers then state that their client is under threat whereupon the judge wails “What can I do? Just give me a date…” Finally, the court – which had earlier sent a police team to arrest him – suspends the non-bailable warrants till March 13. The attempted ‘arrest’ was another fallacy. Even while thousands of Khan supporters surrounded his house in Zaman Park, the Islamabad police seem to have requested his presence, thereafter accepting without question that he was not in the house.
After a while, the police and everyone else would have seen Khan addressing his supporters just outside the house. That is police and judicial magnanimity of a high order, with respected commentators noting other such indulgences such as quick bail, and the orders on holding elections in the two provinces where Khan forced a dissolution. It seems Khan has support in hidden places. Also, all of this has only increased his support. Now #ZamanPark is trending on Twitter, with calls to reach his residence in droves.
Reading the Wind
The thing is that the respected courts usually follow the winds from Rawalpindi. Now that doesn’t seem likely at all. After all, Khan has single-handedly wrecked more havoc on the Army than any leader, living or dead. His discrediting of a sitting Army chief and his intelligence head, by insinuating that he had been removed on their orders, and worse still, at the behest of a foreign power — the United States — has appealed to conspiracy theorists everywhere. That allegation has been countered by the DG ISPR appearing publicly for the first time ever, last year, to energetically maintain that the Army was being used as a scapegoat by Khan, who accused them by day and begged for support at night.
That hardly worked, especially since much of the press briefing was taken up by denials of ISI involvement in the killing of Arshad Sharif in Kenya in October 2022. That was followed by picking up of other journalists. Rumours, however, persisted that a section of the Army was with Khan, particularly after senior retired Army officers voiced strong displeasure about the manner of Khan’s ouster. Now, there are reports of a ‘house arrest’ of Khan’s favourite man in khaki, Lt Gen. Faiz Hameed. That may or may not happen, but it certainly shows the extent of fear within the political circles, of those within the Army, who may be supporting Khan quietly. This, in turn, means his lordships of the court are again on the right side of the wind in gauging the support for Khan from within the corridors of power. General Bajwa was after all, not the most respected to Army chief.
Others are also scenting the wind. Political leaders are already moving into a defensive pose, in preparation for elections. Bilawal Bhutto is already in election mode, with his party retaining its distance from harsh economic measures. In Sindh, he declared that his party was unhappy with ‘unkept promises’ of the Sharif government. Bilawal is the front-runner for Army approval – especially after his tirade against Prime Minister Narendra Modi at the United Nations. One would imagine that no one in their right senses would want to take power at this time in Pakistan’s history.
The economy has never been in a worse state in Pakistani history. The government’s total debt stock rose to 55 trillion rupees by January end, 2023, according to the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), an increase of 15 percent during the first seven months of the current fiscal year. Simply put, it’s beyond Islamabad’s capability to pay. Then there’s the fact of increasing intrusiveness by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) before they agree to release any more funds. And that state of affairs is set to continue, with the lending agency likely to have a finger in every pie. In other words, the ripping off by the elites is going to be reduced, and so will the defence budget.
Then there’s China’s commitment to send $700 million to Pakistan, to shore up its foreign exchange reserves. That means more debt to China, already at unsustainable levels, and far higher than what Pakistan owes the IMF. Then there’s the fact that a meeting was held between the new Army Chief General Asim Munir and top businessmen. Even more interesting, the meeting was requested by the business people; Foreign Minister Dar was also ‘invited’. Reigning business heads always know the ropes.
So here’s the bottom line. Whoever becomes the next PM has to take decisions that are going to be highly unpopular, contend with dramatic climate disasters (look ahead to possible floods as a result of severe upcoming summer), have an Army chief deciding everything, and have a Chinese stranglehold, on top of everything else. Khan apparently has the additional burden of having someone quite literally gunning for him.
The top job is simply not worth having. But look at it this way. The top job was never the top anyway, and the elite of Pakistan have never — so far — been much affected as the country slips steadily down the drain. But this time it’s different. Things could go wrong. One more failed harvest, or another botched operation — for instance, the police brutality against the PTI march which lead to the death of at least one, or its equally violent handling of the ‘Aurat march’ — could result in untoward escalation. That’s what Imran Khan wants. Looks like he’s going to get it.
The author is a Distinguished Fellow at the Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies, New Delhi. She tweets @kartha_tara. The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not represent the stand of this publication.
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