Who's Winning Russia-Ukraine War? What's Putin's Next Move? India's Stand | News18 Takes a Deep Dive

The Russia-Ukraine war, in its seventh month now, shows no sign of abating after Vladimir Putin’s latest warning to the Western countries on using all weapons in his armoury to retaliate Ukraine’s big counter-offensive in Kharkiv region this month. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has recently publicly asked Putin to end the war and consider the problems of food and security being faced by developing countries.

French President Emmanuel Macron said earlier this week Modi was right when he said “the time is not for war”. “It is not for revenge against the West, or for opposing the West against the east. It is the time for a collective time for our sovereign equal states. To cope together with challenges we face,” Macron said at the UN session in New York.

The mainstream American media has also praised Modi for raising the issue of Ukraine war during the meeting.

What is India’s Stand?

India has consistently called for peace and dialogue to end the war in Ukraine while refraining from publicly criticising Putin for the invasion in February. India has never voted against Russia at the UN but continuously highlighted the impact of war on food, energy and security in developing countries.

In February, India had abstained from voting against Russia at the UN but urged for “immediate cessation of violence and hostilities”. “It is a matter of regret that the path of diplomacy was given up. We must return to it. For all these reasons, India has chosen to abstain from the resolution,” TS Tirumurti, Permanent Representative to the United Nations, said at the emergency session of UNSC over Russia’s launch of offensive on Ukraine.

During the bilateral meeting with Putin on the sidelines of the SCO summit in Samarkhand, Uzbekistan last week, Modi called for ending the war and the need for talks and diplomacy. “Today the biggest worry before the world, especially developing countries, is food security, fuel security [and] fertilisers. We must find ways to these problems and you will also have to consider it,” Modi said.

Putin, who spoke before Modi, called him his “dear friend”, and said he understand the concerns around the Ukraine war and his position.

Modi also thanked Putin for helping safe return of 22,000 Indians, most of them students, from Ukraine. He also stressed India’s strategic relations with Russia and their “unbreakable friendship”.

Despite pressure from the US, India has taken up Russia’s offer of discounted commodities, especially oil. India increased oil imports from Russia to 757,000 barrels per day (bpd) during April-August, compared to 20,000 bpd a year earlier.

What Did Putin Say on Nukes?

Putin said on September 21 that he was all prepared to use “all means” to defend the territorial integrity of Russian-occupied lands and their people. He accused the West of “nuclear blackmail”, saying the West encouraged Ukraine to shell Russian-controlled Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in Ukraine.

“…if the territorial integrity of our country is threatened, we will certainly use all the means at our disposal to protect Russia and our people. This is not a bluff,” he said.

Putin’s message came a day after Russian leaders in eastern and southern Ukraine announced plans for so-called referendums on joining Russia. Such move was launched in 2014 after which Russia annexed Crimea.

What is the US Saying?

US President Joe Biden addressed the 77th UN Session on Wednesday and called the Ukraine war “brutal and senseless”. “This war is about extinguishing Ukraine’s right to exist as a State, plain and simple, and [Ukrainian’s] right to exist as a people.” He stressed that no one threated Russia and it sought the conflict.

He also criticised Russia for scheduling “sham referenda” this week in territory it has forcibly seized in Ukraine. “A permanent member of the UN Security Council invaded its neighbour, attempted to erase a sovereign state from the map. Russia has shamelessly violated the core tenets of the UN charter,” he told his UN audience.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Zelensky outlined a five-point agenda for peace at the UN General Assembly on Wednesday. He called for Russia to be punished and Putin’s country should lose veto power in the UN Security Council. He said the world wants peace, and Russia is the “only one entity” among all UN member states that is happy with the war.

What’s the Latest in War?

Pro-Russian figures have announced referendums for September 23-27 in Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhia provinces representing nearly 15% of Ukrainian territory – about the size of Hungary. The US said it rejected such referendums “unequivocally”, France and Lithuania too described the planned votes as “parody”.

The Ukraine launched a major counter-offensive in Kherson, which was captured by Russia and kept intact since the invasion. It has also regained control of Bilohorivka village, and is preparing to retake all of Luhansk province from Russia. Ukrainian President Voldodymyr Zelensky said on Tuesday the country has taken more than 6,000 sq km from Russian control in September.

Russia confirmed it has withdrawn troops from key towns of Izyum and Kupiank. Reports suggest Ukraine has made gains at several locations on Russian front, which now faces a “terrible dilemma”.

Ukraine is using multiple launch rocket systems such as the US-made Himars in both Kharkiv and Kherson, according to the Institute of the Study of War (ISW).

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