The die has been cast. The Union Budget 2021 is a bold statement of economic reform, easily the biggest in over a decade. Even the choice of words was important. For one, the budget was shorn off the usual socialist rhetoric. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman spoke of “privatising” two public sector banks, instead of using the less threatening term “disinvestment.” The government seems ready not just to carry out reforms, but to own up to them in terms of rhetoric. So far, markets and investors appear to have cheered the move.
The Opposition has been outplayed in the elections for nearly seven years now. Now they seem to have come up with a new model. Bring out the resistance on to the streets — block roads and create a spectacle so large that people will be forced to talk about it. This was a model that debuted in late 2019 during anti-CAA protests. It got rave reviews from domestic and international media, as well as so called civil society. Now, they are taking it to the next level.
The politics of chakka jaam has always been there in our country. But more often than not, they have been about a small group with a specific demand. And so, for the most part, they were dismissed as an annoyance. This televised form of protest, with the entire Opposition and civil society throwing its weight behind a special interest group, is new. For now, the lines at Delhi’s borders have been drawn. They are not going away any time soon.
The government has declared its intent to go ahead with reforms in all sectors. This is a collision course. Make no mistake: the labor unions, the bank unions, the railway unions; they are all coming.
Two decades ago, two great reformist prime ministers, Atal Behari Vajpayee and P V Narasimha Rao, laid the bedrock that gave India three decades of growth and a seat at the global power table. Both lost their elections. Rao’s hand was forced by circumstances, but he turned it into a historic opportunity for the nation. Vajpayee took an even bigger risk. Running his first ever government, a shaky coalition with just 182 seats for the BJP, his ministers articulated the philosophy of “It’s not the business of the government to be in business.” For a still hard socialist, agrarian India, this was a daring pitch.
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It did not work electorally for Rao nor Vajpayee, but it did for the nation. There was wealth creation; there were jobs. Millions of people rose out of poverty. An entire generation witnessed India climb on the world stage. Once upon a time, GDP used to be a bad word. Now, the GDP figures, released every three months, are the biggest prestige issue for the government of the day.
Since the global financial crisis of 2008, India’s reform process has almost come to a halt. India’s rise on the global stage has continued, but the speed has been much slower. Prime Minister Modi now seems ready to unleash the second wave of reforms.
Again, it is not going to be easy. But the present government has some big advantages. First, PM Modi has a rock solid majority in the Lok Sabha. Second, he has spent six years relentlessly expanding the base of the BJP in the east, the north-east and the south. In 2014, the BJP had won 282 seats, but it had a soft underbelly. This majority was concentrated in the north and the west of the country. A couple of castes moving here and there and it could all fall apart very quickly.
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Not so in 2019. The BJP now has seats from all over Bengal, Odisha, Telangana and the North East. In Karnataka alone, the party has expanded its reach into 10 new Lok Sabha seats in the southern most, Old Mysore region. Even Tamil Nadu and possibly before that, Puducherry, is increasingly on the radar. In Uttar Pradesh, the BJP’s vote share has hit 50%, drawing support from every caste group. In Bihar, the BJP carried the election almost all on its own. This expanded footprint gives PM Modi the ability to take huge political risks.
And finally, the prime minister can point to the shining example from history. At one time, Atalji faced stiff opposition on issues such as the disinvestment of BALCO, deregulation of the telecom sector, pushing for privatisation of airports and so on. In 2021, almost everything that followed from those reforms has become a source of pride for new India. So why not do more?
The Opposition is keenly aware of this. That is why their political messaging has been about bringing back the elements of the 1980s. The so called farmer protests began with an anti-business message. In order to consolidate their support, they have played quite openly on the old Sikh-Hindu fault lines. And ever since the storming of the Red Fort on Republic Day, they have tried to keep the movement going by turning it into a caste-based agitation.
But they also know that a hardcore 1980s style appeal is not enough to move votes in the new India. Perhaps that is why we have seen a cynical cooperation spring up between so called liberals and the most regressive elements of Indian polity. Who could have guessed ten years ago that caste-based panchayats would become the high hope of Indian liberalism?
The regions with the worst gender ratio, the ones where the most daughters are killed in the womb, are also the beating heart of India’s progressive movement today. Who could have guessed?
That is why we have seen an outreach to celebrity influencers from all over the world. To assure new India that this is the new cool.
The lines have been drawn. There is a lot happening on both sides. Who wins here? Will India march ahead or will we go into stagnation and then retreat? India’s future will be decided on these barricades.
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