This year in September, during the G20 Summit held in India, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni announced that Italy would withdraw from China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Recently, after another meeting with India’s Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, in Dubai, Meloni submitted an official letter to China on Italy’s withdrawal from the BRI.
The move did not come as a surprise, as already during the 2022 election campaign, Meloni claimed that Italy joining the initiative was a mistake. It seems that India was the catalyst behind Meloni’s move. Following the decision, Italy’s membership in the initiative will continue until March 2024 and will not be renewed.
The BRI, founded by China in 2013 as a global framework for development and infrastructure projects, primarily as an alternative to US-led regional and international frameworks, includes about 150 member countries from different regions. The main countries who are not members of the initiative are the QUAD countries (US, Australia, Japan and India) and the G7. In fact, Italy was the only G7 country to join the BRI at the time.
Since its inception, about a trillion dollars have been invested in the initiative, with an emphasis on land and sea connectivity, through the development of seaports, bridges, highways and other infrastructure. Although most of the infrastructure investments and works were carried out in Southeast Asia and Africa, there were also several projects in Europe, the most prominent being the Piraeus port in Greece. In recent years, in fact, since the outbreak of the coronavirus, most projects have been carried out in Africa, and there are almost no new projects, partly due to fears of Chinese control over strategic infrastructure.
From Italy’s perspective, the BRI did not deliver the goods. The economic data supports this, as since Italy joined the BRI in 2019, Italian exports to China grew from $14.5 billion to $18.6 billion by the end of 2022; while imports from China to Italy grew from $35.4 billion to $65.8 billion. The bottom line of this trade trend is that Italy’s trade deficit with China has only grown since joining the BRI, and at the end of 2022 stood at about $48 billion.
Italy’s move comes amid a tense atmosphere between the EU and China, partly due to difficult trade disputes over the huge trade deficit estimated at more than $430 billion, as well as concerns over Chinese access to sensitive infrastructure and technologies. The Italian move might be a wake-up call to the entire European Union.
China emphasised that it would continue to work with Italy to improve trade relations between the countries. Italian officials downplayed the impact of the decision on the continuation of bilateral relations with China, arguing that the countries will continue to develop their relations even without BRI membership, as do other G7 countries. On the agenda is a visit by the President of Italy to China in 2024 and a visit by Prime Minister Meloni.
At the same time, the Italian government’s decision stemmed also from broader geopolitical considerations, the most important of which is the connection with the Indo-Pacific, and especially India. In the last year, India has emerged as a global power and not just as the leader of the Global South, in a way that offers an alternative to China.
The deepening ties between Modi and Meloni over the past year, in which the countries marked 75 years of relations, points to this. In March, Meloni visited India to participate as the chief guest at the 8th Raisina Dialogue, during which the two signed an agreement to upgrade relations to a strategic partnership. They met again in September, on the occasion of the G20 summit, when Meloni also joined India’s initiative to establish a global alliance for organic fuels; and most recently the two met again at the climate conference in Dubai, where the Italian prime minister tagged a joint photo with PM Modi with the hashtag #Melodi.
Italy’s efforts to strengthen ties with the Indo-Pacific fit well with India’s global vision as reflected in the announcement on the India-Middle East-Europe plan (IMEC), which in fact constitutes direct competition for China’s BRI initiative. The IMEC plan presented during the G20 Summit aims to connect India to Europe through the Middle East, to create an economic land corridor that will complement the sea trade routes passing through the Indian Ocean, the Arabian Sea and the Red Sea – which are being threatened lately by the Houthis.
The signing ceremony of the MoU to promote the plan was attended by the US, India, the UAE, the European Union, France, Italy and Germany. However, the plan, which was intended, among other things, to reduce China’s economic influence, is greater than the sum of its parts. In the Mediterranean basin, the Indian connection to Italy is a direct continuation of the Indian investment in the ports of Haifa and Piraeus; in the Middle East, India already has a significant presence. If realised, the regional railways of peace initiative will also become an integral part of this plan and will ensure Saudi Arabia and Israel — India’s close partners — a central role in the IMEC.
Thus, Italy’s move constitutes not only a distancing from international frameworks under Chinese control, but also a clear support of Indian-led international frameworks and vision. The cooperation, currently taking place between the two, is a positive sign that strengthens the Mediterranean basin as a distinct geopolitical space and creates many opportunities for the state of Israel as well, vis-à-vis Europe, the Middle East and Asia. Leveraging its good relations with India and Italy, Israel can become instrumental in the India-Italy vision to bridge the Mediterranean basin and South Asia.
The author is a former director of the Asian Affairs department in the Israeli NSC for a decade, mostly under Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (2012-2022). Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect News18’s views.
Comments
0 comment