In a surprising move on October 3, Pakistan’s interim government issued a 28-day ultimatum to what it referred to as “illegal immigrants” to leave the country, with forced deportations slated to commence on November 1. This decision primarily targets the 1.73 million Afghans residing in Pakistan who have not been able to secure formal refugee status.
The UNHCR estimates that Pakistan currently hosts 3.7 million Afghan refugees, including 700,000 who fled Afghanistan following the Taliban’s takeover in August 2021. Apparently, roughly 1.73 million of these refugees are deemed to be residing in Pakistan without proper documentation, leaving them with little legal protection or avenues for seeking asylum.
The Pakistani government’s stringent stance against undocumented Afghans within its borders has not gone unnoticed by Taliban ministers and officials, who have vociferously criticized the decision. On October 5, Taliban Defence Minister Muhammad Yaqoob decried Pakistan’s expulsion of Afghans as “unjustifiable and inhumane”. International agencies, including the United Nations, also express deep concerns about the potential humanitarian crisis that may result from Pakistan’s forced deportations.
The Pakistani government’s justification for the deportations stems from its claim that 14 out of 24 suicide bombings in the country this year were carried out by individuals holding Afghan citizenship. However, since making this announcement, Pakistan has failed to provide any concrete evidence to substantiate its allegations. Sources in the knowhow of things indicate that the matter is not what’s stated and is much more than meets the eye. It could very well be a case of indirect messaging to the Taliban interim government to act against the TTP and other groups undertaking attacks in Pakistan soil and arrest cross border smuggling.
Based on an in-depth study, it comes out that, in reality, this move by the Pakistani government has little to do with undocumented Afghans perpetrating terror attacks on Pakistani soil, especially when approximately 70% of these so-called “illegal immigrants” consist of women and children. Instead, the measure appears to be a strategic move aimed at exerting pressure on the Taliban regime in Afghanistan to align with Islamabad’s geopolitical interests, and draw international attention back to the region, particularly from the United States.
The reality is that initial jubilation in the Pakistani security establishment upon the Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan was at best a short-lived marriage of convenience. Pakistan’s expectations of an indebted regime in Kabul were dashed when the Taliban released hundreds of Pakistani TTP (Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan) fighters who had been imprisoned in Afghanistan, instead of extraditing them to Pakistan. Among those released were high-ranking TTP commanders wanted by the Pakistan Army. This event marked the beginning of a gradual deterioration in relations between the Pakistan government and the Taliban interim government.
The surging violence by TTP is also causing huge embarrassment to the Pakistani security establishment, as its narrative at international level has fallen flat. In the past, it has been presenting dossiers of alleged involvement of Indian agencies and Afghanistan’s National Directorate of Security in the violence in Pakistan. That is no longer valid. The mounting casualties of Pakistan’s armed forces at the hand of separatists forces in Khyber Pakhtunwaha, Balochistan and Sindh have forced the ‘deep state’ within Pakistan to seek an immediate face saving façade in the form of crackdown on innocents Pashtuns.
Incidentally, this is not the first time that the Pakistani government, acting under the influence of its powerful “deep state,” has employed such measures against Afghan refugees. In 2016, under a similar decree and narrative, thousands of Afghans were forcefully deported to Afghanistan against their will. The deportation process then was marred by coercive actions by Pakistani law enforcement and paramilitary forces.
However, interestingly, such measures in the past did not yield any noticeable improvement in Pakistan’s economy or internal security situation, as earlier professed and currently being peddled to the Pakistani populace. In fact, Pakistan has consistently received financial aid from the United States and European countries for the resettlement of Afghan refugees in its territory. In fiscal year 2022 alone, the United States provided nearly $60 million (over PKR 13 billion) in assistance to refugees and host communities in Pakistan.
Considering historical precedent, it is unlikely that Pakistan’s security situation will improve after the departure of all undocumented Afghans. It is because those who have joined the ranks of the TTP have already organized their documents for seamless movement within the country, avoiding the suspicion of security agencies.
The deportation is more likely to adversely affect law-abiding Afghans and Pashtuns in the area and may indeed trigger a humanitarian catastrophe, exacerbating the security situation along the Afghan-Pakistan borders. This, in turn, could further strain Pakistan-Afghanistan relations. This also could be a case of new modus operandi to seek more aid for humanitarian efforts from world organisations and negotiated dealings.
The writer is an author and columnist and has written several books. He tweets @ArunAnandLive. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect News18’s views.
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