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Allaying the panic, the country’s top pulmonologist told News18 that bird flu has been present for over two decades now and there is already an established vaccine platform against the virus.
Dr Randeep Guleria, the former director of AIIMS and chairman at the Institute of Internal Medicine, Respiratory, and Sleep Medicine at Medanta, told News18: “While it’s beneficial to be vigilant in surveillance, we have been predicting avian influenza or bird flu virus to cause the next pandemic for more than two decades now.”
He added that India can increase its surveillance by keeping a close eye on the cluster of cases showing flu-like symptoms and noticing trends in poultry.
“The virus has been dormant for many years now and there is no need to panic,” he said.
Avian influenza, also known as H5N1, predominantly impacts avian species or birds. Although human-to-human transmission is rare, in instances where it does happen, the mortality rate can escalate to 60 per cent. In contrast, even with the most severe strains, Covid-19 exhibits a mortality rate of approximately 3 per cent.
Experts worldwide have raised a warning about the potential of a bird flu pandemic, which could be a hundred times more severe than Covid.
The source of avian influenza or H5N1 is mainly poultry animals, he explained. “Anyone in close contact with these animals is infected, but human-to-human infections have never been observed.”
H5N1 WAS EXPECTED TO CAUSE PANDEMIC EARLIER AS WELL
Guleria, who is widely recognized as an esteemed pulmonologist and also serves as an advisor to numerous global and national organizations, including the WHO, explained that in 2001, the virus H5N1 was expected to cause the next pandemic.
“The vaccine was made and stored anticipating that if it mutated and turned human-to-human contagious, it would turn out extremely lethal. The mortality of humans with this virus stands at 60 per cent which is extremely high.”
“In fact, in 2009, the swine flu pandemic broke out. Again in 2015, swine flu or H1N1 broke out and then Covid-19 in 2020. So far, this virus could not cause a pandemic as it can infect animals and then infect from animals to humans. However, it fails to infect from one human to another human, which leaves a dead end.”
So far, a study has showed that human-to-human infection is possible if the virus makes “just two mutations”. “Due to these concerns, the vaccine was made and stored by developed nations such as the United Kingdom and the United States. The stockpile later expired. However, today we have the technology and if required, the big pharma giants can stock the product,” he said.
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