KOCHI: The vagrant weather pattern may affect the state’s agricultural scene, say experts. The roving showers during the last week are no signs of ‘thulavarsham’ fanning out, but a reflection of the climate change, says C K Rajan, former director, Centre for Monsoon Studies. This year, till today, the normal climatic conditions rife during October - mid November have not yet appeared. “Any time in the coming days you can expect very heavy rainfall. If the paddy fields at Kuttanad are not harvested before that, there are chances that the whole crop is lost to rain,” he says. Rajan says unlike previous years south-west monsoon has not been withdrawn completely from Indian subcontinent making way for north east monsoon known as ‘thulavarsham’. “Usually by October we will not be getting any rainfall in the northern parts of Kerala. But now we have showers in the whole of western coast up to Mumbai and it is not connected with the depression of cyclone. That means westernly current still persists,” he says. Three days ago Mumbai had very a heavy rainfall which is a stark deviation from the normal pattern. “Even the showers we experience in coastal Kerala during the last two three days don’t denote the onset of ‘Thulavarsham’. Now the entire western coast from Kerala to Maharashtra is getting rainfall in the evenings. This condition may change in three to four days and the north-east monsoon may arrive,” he says. According to him, the freak heatwave that hit Kerala during early October is also a reflection of the unusual change in weather pattern. “This year from September 31 till four days back there was no rainfall, making it a complete dry period. The mercury shot up due to the absence of intermittent rains,” he says. He adds that climatic conditions have undergone a palpable change after 2000. “Every year after 2000 there is some visible shift in the climatic pattern. We should acknowledge the changing style and adjust our agricultural pattern accordingly,” he says.
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