‘Vote katwa’ (vote cropper) is a term political analysts in Uttar Pradesh have coined to define the position of the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh assembly polls, the results of which will be declared on December 3.
UP’s political analysts say that the BSP may not be a non-factor in its home state, but it may act as a deciding factor in the Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh elections.
How?
“The BSP is perhaps one party that has an altogether different strategy when it comes to politics. Unlike the Congress and Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) that are fighting neck-and-neck and are leaving no stone unturned to win, the BSP is well aware that it is contesting to lose. But one thing that still makes the BSP a deciding factor is the dent of votes it causes to the other party. This is the only reason why it is called ‘vote katwa’ (vote cropper) in local parlance,” said Shashikant Pandey, head of political science department, Babasaheb Bhimrao Ambedkar University.
THE 2018 SPOILER POLITICS & 2023
Pandey said the Rajasthan state elections 2018 is a glaring example of the BSP’s “spoiler politics”. Of the 200 seats, the BSP contested 190 and registered a vote share of 4%, winning six seats, including Udaipurwati, Nadbai, Karauli, Nagar, Tijara and Kishangarh Bas. However, all six BSP MLAs joined the Congress in 2019.
“In all 30 seats, where there was a triangular contest between the Congress, BSP and BJP, the BSP acted as a spoiler and impacted the prospects of the parties in fray,” said Pandey.
Of the 30 constituencies, the Congress had won 17 seats, the BJP 10 and three went to independents. “The BSP caused a major dent for the BJP, which lost 17 seats. Of these, the Congress won 16 seats and one seat went to an independent. Had the BJP won all those seats, its tally would have gone up from 73 to 90 and the Congress’s would have dropped from 100 to 84,” said Pandey.
He said in the 2023 polls in Rajasthan, too, the situation is similar in 29-30 seats, including Dolpur, Sapotra, Gangapur, Chomu, Karauli, Nadbai, Bansur, Sanchore, Masuda and others, where there is a triangular contest between the BSP, Congress and BJP.
Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh are no different in terms of the BSP’s strategy.
PARTYSPEAK
A senior BSP leader, who did not wish to be named, said they were hoping to win at least 13 seats in Chhattisgarh. “There are high chances of a coalition government in Chhattisgarh. In such a situation, even if we win 12-16 seats, it would be difficult for the other parties to ignore us in the formation of the government,” he added.
In a recent statement, Madhya Pradesh BSP president Pradeep Ahirwar said the party will drastically improve its tally, win 32 seats and even think of heading the next government. “Neither the BJP nor the Congress is going to get a majority. In this case, the Congress will support us to form the government in Madhya Pradesh. The key to the next government formation will be with Mayawati ji. Our first priority is to form a government in MP. We want her to call the shots in the state,” he added.
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