Former US President Donald Trump said he expects to be “arrested” Tuesday over an alleged hush-money payment to a porn star in 2016 and he urged his supporters to protest, as prosecutors gave signs of moving closer to an indictment.
If indicted, he would be the first former US president to be charged with a crime, marking an explosive and unpredictable development in the 2024 White House race as Trump seeks again to clinch the Republican nomination.
“Leading Republican candidate & former President of the United States of America will be arrested on Tuesday of next week,” the 76-year-old said Saturday on his Truth Social platform, adding: “Protest, take our nation back!”
What is the Case?
At a key point in the 2016 presidential campaign, intense negotiations were underway behind the scenes to prevent the leak of embarrassing, and potentially crippling, allegations against the Republican candidate, explains an AFP report.
In August, The National Enquirer, an American tabloid whose owner is a Trump ally, paid $150,000 to a model, Karen McDougal, for the rights to her story about a relationship she claimed to have had with the billionaire. The objective was to prevent any word of her allegations from getting out — a technique known as “catch and kill” in the United States, where confidentiality clauses are common.
Meantime, Stephanie Clifford — a pornographic film actress who goes by the name of Stormy Daniels — was also trying to cash in on a relationship she says she had with Trump in 2006, a year after he married his current wife, Melania.
The tabloid put her in touch with Michael Cohen, one of Trump’s personal lawyers. Late in the 2016 campaign, Cohen, whose fierce loyalty to Trump had earned him the nickname of “the Pitbull,” arranged a payment of $130,000 to Daniels in exchange for her pledge of confidentiality.
Stormy Daniels was also trying to cash in on a relationship she says she had with Trump in 2006 (Image: Twitter)
The payment was revealed by the Wall Street Journal in January 2018. Cohen and Trump dismissed the report, and the then-president repeatedly denied having had a relationship with Daniels.
The Pitbull
Cohen, who was already entangled in the inquiry into possible Russian interference in the 2016 election, found himself under steadily increasing pressure. He ultimately opted to collaborate with prosecutors and he pleaded guilty in August 2018 before a federal court in Manhattan to charges of tax and bank fraud, but also charges of violating federal campaign financing laws.
A federal indictment accused Cohen of making the payments to Daniels to buy her silence in order to influence the 2016 presidential election. The Trump Organization had reimbursed Cohen for his payment to Daniels, which prosecutors said amounted to an undeclared campaign gift to Trump, in violation of election financing laws.
In December 2018, Cohen — who has turned virulently against Trump and said he was acting on his orders — was sentenced to three years in prison.
Is There Truth to Trump’s Claims of Being Arrested Soon?
District Attorney Alvin Bragg is thought to be eyeing charges in the hush money investigation, and recently offered Trump a chance to testify before the grand jury. Local law enforcement officials are bracing for the public safety ramifications of an unprecedented prosecution of a former American president.
In an internal email following Trump’s statements, Bragg said law enforcement would ensure that the 1,600 people who work in his office would remain safe, and that “any specific or credible threats” would be investigated.
“We do not tolerate attempts to intimidate our office or threaten the rule of law in New York,” he wrote, and added: “In the meantime, as with all of our investigations, we will continue to apply the law evenly and fairly, and speak publicly only when appropriate.”
There has been no public announcement of any time frame for the grand jury’s secret work in the case. At least one additional witness is expected to testify, further indicating that no vote to indict has yet been taken, a person familiar with the investigation who was not authorized to publicly discuss the case told the Associated Press on condition of anonymity.
That did not stop Trump from taking to his social media platform to say “illegal leaks” from Bragg’s office indicate that “THE FAR & AWAY LEADING REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE & FORMER PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, WILL BE ARRESTED ON TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.”
A Trump lawyer, Susan Necheles, told the Associated Press Trump’s post was “based on the media reports,” and a spokesperson said there had been “no notification” from Bragg’s office, though the origin of Trump’s Tuesday reference was unclear.
What Will Happen if Trump is Indicted?
Trump’s aides and legal team have been preparing for the possibility of an indictment. Should that happen, he would be arrested only if he refused to surrender. Trump’s lawyers have previously said he would follow normal procedure, meaning he would likely agree to surrender at a New York Police Department precinct or directly to Bragg’s office.
It is unclear whether Trump’s supporters would heed his protest call or if he retains the same persuasive power he held as president. Trump’s posts on Truth Social generally receive far less attention than he used to get on Twitter, but he maintains a deeply loyal base. The aftermath of the Jan. 6 riot, in which hundreds of Trump loyalists were arrested and prosecuted in federal court, may also have dampened the passion among supporters for confrontation.
The indictment of Trump, 76, would be an extraordinary development after years of investigations into his business, political and personal dealings.
Even as Trump pursues his latest White House campaign — his first rally is set for Waco, Texas, later this month and he shook hands and took selfies with fans during a public appearance Saturday evening at the NCAA Division I wrestling championships in Tulsa, Oklahoma — there is no question an indictment would be a distraction and give fodder to opponents and critics tired of the legal scandals that have long enveloped him.
Besides the hush money inquiry in New York, Trump faces separate criminal investigations in Atlanta and Washington over his efforts to undo the results of the 2020 election.
A Justice Department special counsel has also been presenting evidence before a grand jury investigating Trump’s possession of hundreds of classified documents at his Florida estate. It is not clear when those investigations will end or whether they might result in criminal charges, but they will continue regardless of what happens in New York, underscoring the ongoing gravity – and broad geographic scope – of the legal challenges facing the former president.
Trump’s post Saturday echoes one made last summer when he broke the news on Truth Social that the FBI was searching his Florida home as part of an investigation into the possible mishandling of classified documents.
News of that search sparked a flood of contributions to Trump’s political operation, and on Saturday, Trump sent out a series of fundraising emails to his supporters, including one that claimed, “I’m not worried in the slightest.”
After his post, Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy decried any plans to prosecute Trump as an “outrageous abuse of power by a radical DA” whom he claimed was pursuing “political vengeance.” Rep. Elise Stefanik, the third-ranking House Republican, issued a statement with a similar sentiment.
The grand jury has been hearing from witnesses, including former Trump lawyer Michael Cohen, who says he orchestrated payments in 2016 to two women to silence them about sexual encounters they said they had with Trump a decade earlier.
Trump denies the encounters occurred, says he did nothing wrong and has cast the investigation as a “witch hunt” by a Democratic prosecutor bent on sabotaging the Republican’s 2024 campaign. Trump also has labeled Bragg, who is Black, a “racist” and has accused the prosecutor of letting crime in the city run amok while he has focused on Trump. New York remains one of the safest cities in the country.
Bragg’s office has apparently been examining whether any state laws were broken in connection with the payments or the way Trump’s company compensated Cohen for his work to keep the women’s allegations quiet.
Porn actor Stormy Daniels and at least two former Trump aides — onetime political adviser Kellyanne Conway and former spokesperson Hope Hicks — are among witnesses who have met with prosecutors in recent weeks.
Inputs from AFP, Associated Press contributed to this report
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