India is all set to be part of an Eastern Mediterranean power bloc of Greece, Israel and Cyprus in a 3+1 format. The leaders of Greece, Israel and Cyprus in a joint presser, after the 9th Trilateral Summit in Nicosia, announced that they shall invite India in a 3+1 format. These Eastern Mediterranean countries wish to invite India so that they can enhance energy and economic cooperation as well as work together on strategic interests and counterterrorism.
Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis expressed a keen interest in forming a natural gas export partnership with India. He said India will be invited to the bloc in the trilateral summit, which will take place next year. Gas exploration and transportation was also a major part of the agenda at Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s meeting with the Greek PM during his first-ever visit to Greece last month.
Strategically crucial, rich in natural gas and riddled with maritime territorial disputes, the Eastern Mediterranean is turning into a hotbed of geopolitical activity and India is making inroads into it. News of India becoming all set to be part of a strategic bloc in the Eastern Mediterranean, directly challenging Turkey in its backyard, is sure to ruffle some feathers in Ankara.
The Eastern Mediterranean Sea has yielded major gas discoveries in the last 15 years, especially off the coast of Israel and Egypt. The Tamar Field off the Israeli coast was the first of a series of large-scale natural gas discoveries in the region. More gas exploration is underway in the exclusive economic zone of Cyprus. But here is where things get tricky.
Turkey’s Territorial Claims
The Eastern Mediterranean is riddled with maritime territorial disputes with Turkey asserting its claim beyond the waters assigned to it under the international law of United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. UNCLOS is a treaty signed by more than 167 countries and defines the rights and responsibilities of nations beyond their coasts. Turkey is not a signatory.
Turkey rejects UNCLOS and seeks control over several Greek islands and the territorial waters around them in the Aegean Sea. Turkey’s claims extend further into the Eastern Mediterranean in a dispute with Cyprus.
Turkey’s EEZ claims clash with Cyprus. Further, the Turkey-backed TRNC’s claims clash with Nicosia’s as well. The TRNC is recognised only by Turkey and seen by most of the world as part of Cyprus. Greece, Israel and India — all have warm ties with Cyprus, and back it against Turkey’s aggressive tactics.
Like-Minded Nations Unite
As the stakes get higher, opposition from Turkey has grown louder, which is why these like-minded East-Mediterranean nations seek to share their exploits with a like-minded major power like India to strengthen their position in the region.
Since the Russia-Ukraine war, Europe has presented an urgent demand for alternative sources of natural gas other than Russia. This has opened a major opportunity for East-med players to export gas to Europe, with Greece playing the role of the “Gateway”.
Natural gas can flow both ways to Europe and India through pipelines and shipments. Moreover, with Israel’s warm ties with the UAE since the Abrahamic Accord, and another Abrahamic Accord with Saudi Arabia on the cards, a road from Greece to India opens up through Israel and the Arabian peninsula providing a safe and stable trade route.
This is the beginning of a grand geopolitical idea taking shape. It will not only open up game-changing economic opportunities but also cement a strategic partnership akin to the Quad and the I2U2.
It also strengthens the Greece-Cyprus-Israel trilateral against Turkey in the region. Turkey’s hostility towards India has already pushed New Delhi closer to Greece, Cyprus, Israel and Armenia. So, not only is there economic potential in such a grouping, but also strategic like-mindedness, which can go a long way to combat terrorism, and extremism and cement peace in the region. Another takeaway from this is that nations do not want to miss out on India’s growth story, knowing the sheer market size and growth projections of India’s economy.
Turkey Gets Back-to-Back Setbacks From India
Ahead of the G20 summit in New Delhi which Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will be attending, Turkey has received back-to-back setbacks from India in what appears to be a concerted effort to send Ankara a message. PM Modi visited Greece for the first time becoming the first Indian PM to land in Athens in four decades. A week prior to the visit, Gen. Anil Chauhan, the Chief of Defence Staff of the Indian Armed Forces, connected with the Defence chief of Cyprus in a phone call. In the same month of August, India’s NSA Ajit Doval met the NSA of Armenia in another message to Turkey. Armenia is locked in a deadly conflict with Azerbaijan, an ally of Turkey, and India has even shipped the Pinaka rocket launcher to the erstwhile Soviet nation to bolster its firepower.
Now, India is making inroads into Turkey’s backyard and this is in response to Ankara’s hostile stance against New Delhi.
Over the last few years, Turkey has formed a strategic and collaborative relationship with Pakistan, adopting the rogue nation’s model of using terrorism as a strategic tool. Turkey vehemently supports Pakistan’s claim on India’s Jammu and Kashmir and has attempted to tarnish India’s image at global forums including the United Nations. Turkey is also reported to working with Pakistan on a radicalisation project targeting Indian Muslims, especially those in Kerala and Kashmir. Turkish weapons have been found on Pakistani terrorists in Kashmir reeking of a deep partnership between Islamabad and Ankara.
Turkish non-governmental organisations (NGOs) are allegedly providing financial support, ostensibly through Zakat charity donations during Ramadan, to entities involved in activities opposing India in the region of Jammu and Kashmir. Turkey has been put on the FATF grey list due to reports on terror financing at the hands of the Erdogan government. It is not just accused of using ISIS terrorists to do its regional bidding, but it emerged in 2022 that a “social organisation”, Turkey Youth Foundation (TUGVA), which is run by the family of President Erdogan, was recruiting and training youths for “covert” missions in India, Russia and China.
India’s timely and proactive actions may be aimed at culling Turkey’s aggressive diplomatic stance at the G20 Summit.
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