The world is moving ahead at breakneck speed. In 2023 we have had one more war that is roiling geopolitics and upending the global order as we knew it. We have the Israel-Hamas war, which may have started as a limited operation to teach the Palestinian outfit a lesson but now seems to be unsettling the wider Arab world. This was on top of the other war that has been ravaging the world for close to two years now: the Russia-Ukraine conflict. In that war, it is almost dead certain that Ukraine cannot win from this point. It will have to make peace with the 20 per cent or so of its territory which it has lost to Russia since the war began in February 2022. So what is likely to happen in 2024? What are going to be the five big broad trends in global policy? Here’s a lowdown.
Elections, elections, elections
There are going to be more elections in 2024 than in many years past. In 2024, some of the world’s biggest democracies will be going to the polls. From America to India to even the tiny island of Taiwan, 2024 will see more than 4 billion people of the world competing to elect governments in their respective countries.
In the subcontinent, there will be elections in India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. It could well reshape the politics of the subcontinent. Depending on who wins in Pakistan, there could be a revival of thaw between New Delhi and Islamabad. The military establishment seems to be backing Nawaz Sharif who has historically encouraged better ties with India. In Bangladesh, most likely Sheikh Hasina will return as Prime Minister. While that is good news for New Delhi because the Awami League has largely been seen as a pro-India party, her government is facing considerable pressure from the US and international bodies for jailing political opponents and facing accusations of muzzling free and fair elections in the country.
Later in the year, there will be elections in America, in what is likely to be a straight fight, a repeat of 2020: Joe Biden versus Donald Trump. But their roles will be reversed. In 2024 Trump will be the challenger and Biden the incumbent. Will the results also be reversed? As things stand today, Trump leads Biden in all seven swing states by anywhere between 2 to 5 percentage points.
Return of Trump 2.0
If elections were to be held today, Trump would beat Biden hands down. It could be likelier a bigger victory for Trump than his first win in 2016 against Hillary Clinton. But then one year is a long time in politics.
Anything can happen, from Trump being convicted in the many, many legal cases he’s faced with. Biden’s ill health may also change the campaign if he decides to withdraw or if unforeseen health circumstances force him to withdraw from the race. But if Trump were to be elected again, he could upend everything from the Russia-Ukraine war to the war in Gaza. If Trump were to win, he would likely dump Ukraine and cement Russia’s de facto control of 20 per cent of Ukrainian territory. He will also likely put more pressure on Zelenskyy to accept a peace deal with Russia. In the case of Israel, he could give a free pass to Netanyahu to double down on the war effort. This would mean that an embattled Israeli Prime Minister will be emboldened to go after Hamas with even more severity. This could further drive a wedge between Israel and its Arab neighbours. The process of normalisation between Israel and Saudi Arabia will have to be put in cold storage. US relations with the Latin American comity of nations will be severely strained as Trump will make migration one of his top priorities.
Fate of two wars
While the world’s gaze has been utterly shocked by the Israel-Hamas war, it is unlikely to end anytime soon. Israel’s stated goal is to completely destroy Hamas. While that may be possible militarily, it might not be easy to find a likely replacement to fill the power void in Gaza. America and its European partners want Hamas to be replaced with the Palestinian Authority in a post-war Gaza.
But Netanyahu will have none of it. He feels emboldened that this war will give him the latitude to bury the two-state solution once and for all. This, of course, will not be allowed by America or the Arab world. It is likely that in 2024, once the military part of this war is over, Netanyahu will be replaced, either with main opposition leader Benny Gantz or with the more middle-of-the-road Defence Minister Yoav Gallant. But it is unlikely that Netanyahu can cling on to power through much of 2024, once the war is over.
The Russia-Ukraine war on the other hand is grinding into a slow stalemate. Ukraine’s famed counter-offensive in 2023 came a cropper. They were not able to repel Russian troops from the eastern parts of Ukraine. Russian defences proved to be far more resilient than anticipated. Russia is now firmly entrenched in the Donbas and is unlikely to give up this territory. With this, Russia moves closer to its objective of establishing a buffer state between itself and an ever-expanding NATO. A battered Zelenskyy returned empty-handed from a year-end visit to the White House and Capitol Hill. It is unlikely that Republicans will give any more funds to Ukraine, partially because much of the funding effort has shifted to Israel. Also, this is their way of putting pressure on Biden to crack down on the southern border problem and illegal immigration. If Trump gets elected to the White House, then funding for Ukraine will almost totally stop. This would add pressure on Ukraine to forcibly sit across the table with Russia and negotiate a cold peace.
Asia in focus
The geopolitical tensions between the US and China are likely to exacerbate. Irrespective of who wins the White House, tensions between Washington and Beijing are likely to escalate as anti-China rhetoric starts dominating the campaign trail. Neither Trump nor Biden would want to be seen as reconciliatory towards China. Hawkish anti-China rhetoric plays well with the once-industrial belt in the Midwest. Those also happen to form a bulk of the swing states which ultimately decide who wins the Presidential election. There are also elections in Taiwan, the small island nation, which China claims as its own. If the leading candidate, DPP’s William Lai, wins, it will lead to further tensions with Beijing. The DPP wants complete independence and does not recognise Beijing’s claims. But if the more conciliatory candidate of the KMT wins, then Beijing might stop interfering. In any case, expect more military muscle flexing by China in the run-up to the Taiwan polls. China will also likely test other nations in the Asia Pacific with whom it has a troubled relationship.
Of notable interest will be the Philippines and India, both of which have shown a willingness to push back.
New energy and artificial intelligence
There used to be a time when oil and gas controlled geopolitics. What else explains the oversize power of mid-sized economies in the Gulf like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar? But in an all-electric world dominated by the likes of Tesla and BYD, oil and gas are fast going to lose relevance. What is going to gain relevance in their place are rare earth minerals like lithium and nickel. These are required to manufacture semiconductors and clean batteries. Whoever controls the supply chains of these rare earths will control global geopolitics. Similarly, AI will completely start taking over in 2024. Notwithstanding the drama around OpenAI founders being kicked out and then brought back, the debate over human intelligence and jobs losing out to artificial intelligence will continue to exacerbate in 2024. There could also be the negative effects of AI with election meddling and deepfakes of celebrities. A lot of old jobs will quickly become redundant and a lot of new ones will be created. But will our economies be attuned to produce engineers and doctors and researchers who are cut out for the jobs of 2024 and not 2004?
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