India is set to witness a scorching summer as it heads into the country’s biggest election season this April. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has warned of above-normal heatwave days from March to May.
“We are expecting a higher number of heatwave days over most parts of the country over the next three months. The heatwave could hit the east-central states like Odisha as well as Maharashtra and northeast peninsular India like Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh and Telangana as early as March," said the Director General of Meteorology, IMD Dr M Mohapatra. Both the maximum and minimum temperatures are expected to be above-normal throughout the next three months over most parts of the country.
South India, especially Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu, saw a warmer than usual February as mercury surged above 30°C on several days. According to IMD, southern peninsular India recorded its warmest February in nearly 123 years. While the monthly average day temperatures were 0.91° degrees higher than normal and stood at 33.09°C, the night temperatures were at least 1.4 degrees above normal at 21°C for the month — highest since 1901. Central India also recorded the warmest night temperatures for the month (since 1901) at 16.62°C – at least 1.6°C higher than the normal.
India has been witnessing an increase in the intensity and frequency of heatwaves over the years. The 2022 summer season was exceptional as heatwaves swept several parts of the country in March, impacting the Rabi crops. The severity of summer is also expected to be high because of the impact of the El-Nino. It refers to a global climate phenomenon characterized by warming of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. “The El Nino conditions are on decline, but they are still likely to continue till May, so they will contribute to the overall warming and heatwaves. They are likely to turn neutral in June by the time the southwest monsoon makes its onset over Kerala," said the IMD Chief.
IMD declares a heatwave if the maximum temperature crosses 40℃ or more for plains and 37℃ or more for coastal areas in two weather stations in a meteorological station for at least two consecutive days.
The latest forecast suggests consecutive western disturbances over the next two weeks, which will bring rain over North India and keep the temperatures from rising at least till May 15. The overall rainfall during March is expected to be above-normal, except over extreme parts of south-peninsular India.
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