India-Maldives relations are straining as a result of events that happened recently. Concerns were raised by the swift deterioration of India-Maldives ties, which occurred only one month after Prime Minister Narendra Modi met with Mohamed Muizzu, the recently elected president of the Maldives. The catalyst was a series of tweets from three Maldivian ministers denouncing Prime Minister Modi’s visit to Lakshadweep and his close ties with Israel.
India and the Maldives have long-standing historical ties in terms of ethnicity, language, culture, religion, and trade. The partnerships have been multifaceted, amicable, and sincere. Following Maldives independence in 1965, India was one of the first countries to recognise the country and open diplomatic ties with it. India’s quick intervention in the 1988 coup attempt resulted in the growth of mutual trust and peaceful, long-lasting bilateral ties with the Maldives. Our forces’ prompt evacuation when they were deemed unnecessary allayed concerns about potential Indian territorial aspirations and supremacy.
Since 1988, India and Maldives have worked closely together in the fields of security and defence. In order to accommodate the Maldivians’ needs for defence equipment and training, India took a highly cooperative and versatile approach. In April 2016, a comprehensive Action Plan for Defence was also signed in order to strengthen the defence collaboration.
When the Tsunami struck in 2004 and Malé faced a water crisis in December 2014, India was the first country to step up by aiding the Maldives. The Indira Gandhi Memorial Hospital (IGMH) was built in 1995 with Indian grant assistance. At a cost of Rs 52 crore, major renovations to the IGMH sponsored by the Government of India culminated in June 2017. During her visit to Malé on March 17–18, 2019, the late EAM Sushma Swaraj entrusted the renovations of IGMH to the people of Maldives. India’s credentials as the “first responder” have been further cemented by the country’s prompt delivery of 30,000 doses of the measles vaccine in January 2020 to stop an outbreak in the Maldives, as well as by its prompt and all-encompassing aid to the Maldives since the start of the Covid epidemic.
Tourism, which is the main source of government revenue and foreign exchange gains, is a major contributor to the Maldivian economy. About 25 per cent of the Maldives’ GDP is derived directly from tourism, with a far larger percentage coming from indirect sources. For Maldivians, the hospitality sector provides over one-third of direct employment prospects. India remained the leading market in 2021 and 2022, with approximately 2.91 lakh and 2.41 lakh arrivals of Indian tourists, and a 23 per cent and 14.4 per cent market share respectively. An open skies agreement between Maldives and India was reached in March 2022, substantially enhancing connectivity between the two nations. With 100,915 visitor arrivals (up to June 13, 2023), India ranks as the top source market for the Maldives, accounting for 11.8 per cent of the market.
India and China, the two main geopolitical powers, have been jostling and strategising for the Maldives for over ten years, and as a result, its domestic politics have suffered greatly. Ibrahim Mohamed Solih, the former president of the Maldives, adopted an explicitly ‘Indian First’ approach, recognising the country’s neighbour as its most important international ally. Maldives has received billions from India, which has been generous to them in helping to pay off the vast amounts of debt left by the previous government. However, following Muizzu’s victory last year, ties between these two countries began to deteriorate.
In an apparent political tactic to promote his election campaign, Muizzu used the “India Out” card early in the campaign, which Yameen supporters intensified. This played on widespread fears about India’s dominance. Concerns about dominance are shown in the strong opposition to a small Indian military presence in this country. Small contingents of the Indian Navy and Coast Guard operate two helicopters, a marine patrol aircraft, and search and rescue capabilities for medical evacuations and exclusive economic zone monitoring. A large number of locals falsely think they are spies and intruders.
However, as anticipated after President Muizzu took office, the government chose to dissolve the agreement for cooperative hydrographic surveys with India. Signed amid the 2019 Maldives visit by Prime Minister Modi, the agreement was regarded as a representation of India-Maldives defence relations. A few weeks after the island country officially asked that New Delhi relocate its Indian military forces from its territory, Malé also chose not to attend the most recent Colombo Security Conclave summit in December 2023, perhaps further highlighting its misgivings regarding defence collaboration with India.
The situation worsened when Muizzu chose to visit Ankara rather than New Delhi, defying a long-standing custom among Maldivian presidents. Muizzu’s main focus is making new friends during a period when he has made it obvious that he wants to distance himself from India. However, the tweeting controversy brought the ties between India and the Maldives to an all-time low. Following PM Modi’s tweet thread on his visit to Lakshadweep Island, three Maldivian ministers, Malsha Shareef, Mariyam Shiuna, and Abdulla Mahzoom Majid, made racist statements. The damage was done even though the tweets were taken down, the ministers were suspended, and the Maldivian government disassociated itself from them. The corresponding envoys were called.
Indian visitors make up the majority of arrivals in the Maldives following Covid; thus, hurt Indians have taken to social media to call for an economic “boycott” of the island. With the large number of tourists opting to cancel their Maldives trips, some travel companies have decided to delete the Maldives category from their online listings. Trade associations like the Confederation of All India Traders (CAIT) urged exporters and local traders not to do business with the island nation. Additionally, “in solidarity” with India, EaseMyTrip halted all airline reservations to the island nation on its website.
India’s boycott of the Maldives might have a big impact on both nations’ economies and relations. The Maldives’ economy is highly dependent on tourism, so if Indian travellers stop going there, it might cause the country’s GDP to shrink. Tense relations might develop diplomatically and harm stability and cooperation in the region. On the positive end of the spectrum, it is underlined that Lakshadweep will greatly benefit from the shift.
The recent surge in travel will encourage more individuals to discover unexplored beach hideaways, in addition to boosting the economy and advancing tourist development. However, this also has an undesirable effect. Maldives is India’s most significant maritime neighbour in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) and is given a prominent position in the Neighbourhood First Policy and SAGAR (Security and Growth for All in the Region) initiatives of the government of PM Modi. If things become worse, everything will ultimately come to a tragic conclusion.
It is imperative that both governments use diplomatic channels to resolve issues in order to reduce any adverse consequences. India should use its soft power diplomacy, since the strain between the two nations will allow China to expand and threaten the stability of the region. Despite their disagreements, both India and Maldives have decades of history together; therefore, they should be able to work through this to create an immensely collaborative and cooperative cooperation.
Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect News18’s views.
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