Bhagalpur: Bihar is witnessing one of its toughest bipolar elections this time. It is a battle between the might of Chief Minister Nitish Kumar-led Mahagathbandhan and the wave of Prime Minister Narendra Modi that the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is riding on. Two of the most prominent faces of Indian polity are marshalling their troops in the battlefield, and both are into an even battle as Bihar seems to be undecided in turning the tide in favour of either.
But the fate of these political giants depends on a number of lesser-known faces who are pitted as soldiers on the ground, trying their luck in constituencies, many of which are away from the urban poster war but still witnessing intense theatrics of the political groups.
One such constituency is Nathnagar, located near the silk city of India, Bhagalpur. The main contest in Nathnagar is between NDA's Amar Kushwaha, a Lok Janshakti Party candidate, and incumbent MLA Ajay Kumar Mandal of the Janata Dal United.
Like several parts of the state, voters in this region also appear divided on choosing the face that would represent them at the Vidhan Sabha in Patna.
According to 65-year-old Suraj Narain Sharma, a voter in the area, it is very tough to ascertain which way the tide will turn this time. However, he is sure about one thing. He says he "will vote for the party that most people in his area will go with". According to him there’s no point voting for a different party, as that will not help in any way.
This may sound as ‘herd mentality’, but the veteran voter has his own reasons. "I have seen everyone from Jawaharlal Nehru to Lalu Prasad to Nitish Kumar to Narendra Modi. I don’t think anyone will ever make a difference, but at least voting for the one who is the choice of my locality helps me retain good relationship with people of my area. I have no choice but to trust someone.”
But one Kamal Kishore Sharma, almost of the same age, is clearer about his choice. He is furious with incumbent MLA Ajay Kumar Mandal of the JDU. “Ajay Mandal never came before or even after last elections. We don’t even know his face…he has not done a single thing for this area. Till now, he has not come even to seek votes. People will never vote for him again,” he says.
Amid the conversation arrives the wife of Suraj Narain Singh. But when asked about her choice of candidate, pat comes her husband’s statement, “She is a woman, she will vote for whichever party we ask her to…how can she have a choice of her own? She doesn’t even understand politics.”
This statement, though unfortunate, pretty much sums up the say that the women have when exercising their adult franchise. However, there’s one ray of hope, as these people are sure about one thing – will never stop voting till we are alive.
The picture gets even clearer when dug deeper inside the constituency. When asked about the choice of the area this season, another veteran voter, 60-year-old Bijay Prasad Gupta says, “It’s all about caste. The population of Mandals is very high in some pockets of the constituency, so it’s really not certain that Mandal doesn’t have a chance. It doesn’t matter if he hasn’t turned up in the past five years…Even the Muslims will never vote for an NDA candidate (Ajay Kushwaha of JDU in this case).”
One may wish to reject this idea considering the newer generation may have a different sentiment. But it’s just the contrary. Two voters in their 20s, Sanjay Kumar and Vishnu Kumar Yadav, also feel that it’s going to be about caste only. They have a simple calculation in place, “Mandals always vote in bulk, and their population in this area is in plenty. It is very clear and simple, Mandal will win.”
From old to young, the choice and the cause of it seems apparent at this stage, but some still feel that the caste equation may get divided because of wrong choice of candidate. Some feel that had the JDU given the ticket to some other Mandal, it might have ensured consolidation of votes for him, but Ajay Kumar Mandal has missed his chance big time.
Sunil Kumar Rana, who runs a tailor shop in the area, feels, “Since Mandal has never shown his face, his vote is certainly going to get divided. As much as 50% people of his caste may still vote for him, but the rest are bound to go the other way.”
When asked about the possibility of Muslim votes not going in favour of the NDA candidate at all, he throws up the name of Abu Kaishar, former RJD leader who is now contesting on a ticket from Pappu Yadav’s Jan Adhikar Morcha (Loktantrik). “Some Muslims will vote for Abu Kaishar, thereby dividing Mandal’s votes…there’s no doubt that Kushwaha will emerge victorious.”
Meanwhile, Jaya Devi, a sarpanch in the area, asserts that no one can predict a winner at this stage. According to her, it’s all about the candidate most people in the area vote for. “When I contested the panchayat polls, I got the votes because people voted as a group. Same will happen now, and there’s still time, people are yet to make up their mind.”
Despite these versions of confusion and vote division, there are many in the constituency who mince no words when it comes to their choice. Two veterans, Ashok and Dinesh Yadav, though argue a bit on the permutations that would work, or not work, this time. They come up with a common answer at the end: “Till Sudha Srivastava was alive, this used to be a JDU stronghold. Even till last time, people voted for Mandal, but he came across as a big disappointment”.
They add, “Amar Kushwaha of the NDA is the undisputed option now, only because JDU has selected a wrong candidate.” When asked about Kaishar, they say, “He is a good candidate. He has worked for the area despite losing elections twice, but he has aligned with the Third Front, which doesn’t have any standing. We don’t want our votes to go useless.”
The two assert that a visit to the interiors of the constituency, the block area, will give more clarity to the scenario and will further back their claim. A further walk of two kilometre into the lanes of Nathnagar did actually throw some more light on the ground reality.
When the same question was thrown to a group of young voters engaged in a game of carrom board, they had a straightforward answer, “It is Kushwaha this time. Mandal has lost his chance by being absent. But it still is about caste here. The only thing countering it is the fact that there are a lot of vote-cutters in fray. Kushwaha will gain from it.”
What’s worrying here is the fact that the voters are hardly talking about issues. Amar, the senior of the lot, says, “You may ask anyone, no one will talk about issue. You might have witnessed by now that issues are aplenty, but they have always remained this way. It’s only about caste and the absence of the incumbent MLA for the voters.”
A trader in the area, Anil Kumar Jha, however, had something to speak about the issues. “No work has been done in the area in the past five years. There is no administration, no law and order, we even clean the drains ourselves. We even buy water to drink.”
Amar Kushwaha himself is quite confident of the victory in the area. Speaking to IBNLive, he said, “Nathnagar has rejected Mandal completely. He has changed the meaning of being a politician and a leader.”
His rival, Ajay Kumar Mandal, was unavailable to comment despite repeated attempts. However, his apology at a recent rally of Chief Minister Nitish Kumar for being absent from his constituency depicts that what Nathnagar feels about him is not for no reason.
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