Party time for UPA but much Left to worry about

New Delhi: While CNN-IBN-Indian Express opinion brings in much good news for the UPA Government – a poll now could mean another term for the coalition – there’s also some trouble brewing on the horizon.

With anti-incumbency fast setting in, the coalition needs to put in many checks and balances in place.

According to CNN-IBN's mid term poll projections, the UPA is likely to get 267 seats - just five short of the majority mark.

It is a clear improvement of the 220-figure the UPA had notched in 2004 and more importantly less reliance on a stubborn Left when the government is formed next time.

“We are the most ready for elections (sic). Your survey shows the likely results of that election. It also shows the result of an election on those who are challenging us to have an election,” says Congress spokesperson Abhishek Manu Singhvi.

But the Congress cannot relax just yet. The survey also reveals that anti incumbency has just about set in.

While in January 2007, the vote share for the UPA was 43.2 per cent, this month it has dipped to 39.2 per cent.

For the NDA, the vote share has slightly gone up - 28.1 per cent in January 2007 to 29 per cent in September. Left too has increased its vote share from 5.9 per cent to 6.7 per cent.

“Neither the Cong has the courage nor the Left has the guts to go for polls,” said BJP Spokesperson, Ravi Shankar Prasad.

There is another worry for the Congress. The poll also shows that despite claims and announcements of several agricultural policies, farmers are unhappy with Manmohan Singh.

This unhappiness in the countryside along with inflation could prove to be a headache for the UPA.

But the BJP is the bigger loser.

Anti-incumbency is at it peak in BJP-ruled states like Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh where Congress will obviously profit.

But, then again, the Congress will have to contend with some losses in states where it is in power now - Maharashtra, Delhi and Andhra Pradesh.

But the disillusionment with the ruling party is not as high in the Congress-ruled states.

But then political realignments will be at work as months pass by. Left may move away further while Mamata Bannerjee may inch closer to the Congress.

Possibly for the Congress, now is the best time to go for elections.