Rajasthan May Not Go Congress Way, KCR May Lose Telangana: What Outliers in Exit Polls Are Predicting

New Delhi: As the exit poll predictions rolled in on Friday evening, most pollsters settled on nearly unanimous trends, but there remained outliers suggesting a different picture. It will all be resolved on results day next Tuesday.

First, take the case of Madhya Pradesh. Times Now-CNX and Republic-Jan Ki Baat have given the BJP a clear edge here, while NewsX-Neta, Republic - CVoter, ABP-CSDS claim it is advantage Congress, with the survey predicting that the Congress will get 126 seats, while the BJP’s tally will be just 96 seats in the 230-seat Assembly. Others, like India Today - Axis suggested a larger range - between 102-120 for the BJP and between 104-122 for the Congress, giving the latter an edge but stopping short of presenting clear picture. This may be a reflection of the neck-to-neck fight that both the national parties are engaged in, in the state.

Similarly, in Chhattisgarh, while most polls (Times Now - CNX, NewsX-Neta, etc) gave the BJP an advantage, India Today - Axis and Republic - Jan Ki Baat have provided broad ranges, giving the BJP a slight edge but not really giving a decisive mandate to any party, in a state where the majority mark is 46. The India Today-Axis survey remained an outlier with a prediction of 55-65 seats for the Congress, with the BJP getting 21-31 seats and other candidates getting 4-8 seats.

These polls also suggest that smaller regional forces like BSP, Ajit Jogi's Janta Congress, etc, might eventually become king-makers in Chhattisgarh with 'others' expected to get between 0 and 11 seats.

The polls were more unanimous in both Rajasthan and Telangana, with a prediction of a Congress and TRS victory, respectively. But in Rajasthan, for instance, where all polls predicted a clear advantage for the Congress, the Republic Jan Ki Baat survey said that results would have wafer thin margins, with the slightest of advantages remaining with the BJP. It slotted the BJP with 83-103 seats, and gave the Congress 81-101 seats.

Similarly, the Republic-CVoter survey bucked the trend of a clear victory for TRS, suggesting that the ruling party would be in a neck-to-neck contest with the Congress. It predicted 48-60 seats for the TRS and 47-59 seats for the Congress, with 6-18 seats for others - suggesting that the BJP could potentially emerge as king makers.

In scenarios where winning margins could be wafer thin, the 'others' could make results even more interesting than they already are. All eyes are now set on the 11th.