THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: This is one rare occasion when the state would see a minimum of Rs.190 crore infused into its economy in the next 30 days, if the base figure of Rs.16 lakh, the limit fixed for an Assembly candidate, and multiplying it with the number of Assembly candidates likely to be in the fray this time.
True, all candidates may not spend Rs.16 lakh, but their thrift would be compensated by some of the big names in fray who would wind up spending many times more the basic amount fixed for each Assembly candidate. Add another Rs.50 crore that the Election Commission would shell out for running the entire official election machinery and the figure would touch Rs.240 crore. In the 2006 Assembly elections, the total spend was perhaps less than Rs.100 crore, admit top Election Commission sources. The total number of candidates in the fray last time was 931. Multiply it with the sanctioned amount of Rs.10 lakh and you arrive at a conservative estimate of Rs.93 crore.
Though major candidates spend infinitely more than their limit, the not so serious ones - dummies and impostors - spend far less than their sanctioned limit. The total number of candidates who lost their deposit last time was a whopping 646; which is nearly 70 percent of the total 931.
“The extravagance of a small minority is easily offset by the frugality of the majority and the average figure works,” a political scientist said. The same formula could now be applied for the 2011 elections. Political pundits say that there is an average 20-25 percent growth in the number of candidates each year.
If in 2001 there was 676 candidates, 2006 saw the number jumping to 931; a 38 percent increase. Even if one were to stick to the conservative growth figure of 20-25 percent, the total number of candidates in the fray this time would be around 1200. At Rs.16 lakh a candidate, it adds up to Rs.192 crore.
Scientifically assessing election spending is near impossible, admits political scientist Dr G Gopakumar. He said the Centre for Study of Developing Societies (CDS) had once tried to put the funding of a single constituency in the state under the microscope and discovered that the task was ‘mind-boggling’.
“We tried to keep tabs on the structure of parties and the physical geography of the constituency. We even listed the number of workers enlisted for squad work at the ward level, the daily remuneration paid them and the money spent on food and drinks for them. Even then we found that it was hard to come to grips with the entire election machinery of big parties,” Gopakumar said.
According to academician Ramachandran Nair, the Election Commission could get some sense of the spending involved only if they could keep tabs on the various underground channels of money flowing towards major parties.
“But this is something beyond their capability. Money power has devised its own detection-proof networks,” Ramachandran said. Interestingly, Gopakumar points out that the limit of `16 lakh imposed on a candidate is too restrictive.
“Just divide the total number of voters in a constituency by that number and you will find the inadequacy of the amount,” he said. Talk to election agents and one gets a sense of how the money flows into the system.
“The rise in fuel costs and general rise in prices have led to skyrocketing of campaign charges. The daily rent for vehicle announcements, for instance, has shot up to Rs. 5,000 from Rs. 1,000 last Assembly elections,” says Shibu, one such agent, who can’t wait for the big splurge to begin.
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