Shiv Sena Still Short of Halfway Mark in Mumbai: Two Likely Scenarios

Mumbai: The Shiv Sena is ahead in Mumbai with more than 90 seats. But with trends from only around 15 places to come in it may land short of the halfway mark of 114.

Here are the likely scenarios emerging.

SCENARIO 1: If Uddhav decides to dump BJP and go with smaller parties

- Uddhav will come under pressure from Sena rank and file to walk out of the Fadnavis government

- BJP has 122 seats and Shiv Sena 63 in the house of 288 members. And this will leave the Fadnavis government in minority.

- Given the pathetic state of the Congress and the NCP, it is highly unlikely that they’ll be eager to go into poll right now.

- In such situation, the opposition will ask for President’s rule or tolerate a minority government like the one Narsimha Rao ran at the centre.

- It will be massive loss for the Congress, as it will have to cede the opposition’s space in the BMC to the BJP.

-The new dispensation will also have a conflict of interest with the BJP is the leader of the house in the Assembly and leader of opposition in BMC.

SCENARIO 2: If Shiv Sena fails to reach 100 mark and join hands with the BJP

- There’ll be a massive moral issue as the campaign saw Sena and BJP leaders indulging in a high-decibel attacks at each-other.

- Uddhav may find it hard to pacify Sainiks and convince them on the need to go back to BJP.

- Sena will have to cede to BJP’s demand for more transparency in the working of the BMC.