New Delhi: The dates for Karnataka Assembly polls have just been announced. Votes will be polled on May 12 and counting will be held on May 15 in what is arguably the most politically significant state south of Vindhyas.
Congress president Rahul Gandhi has been touring the state for the last two months and BJP president Amit Shah has been equally persistent in mobilising support for his party.
While the Congress, led by Chief Minister Siddaramaiah, is looking to buck the almost three decade old cyclical power trend (no political party has held power after one term since 1989), the BJP is looking to grab power in the last big state under Congress' control.
But both parties know that the way to securing Karnataka is a long-winded one that passes through six separate regions within the state. All have their own caste combinations, political advantages and disadvantages for BJP and Congress.
Old Mysore
Old Mysore is the biggest sub-region in the state. It has traditionally been a Congress dominated region but the big player here in the last assembly elections was JD(S), which bagged most of its seats, 30 of a total of 40, in this region, leaving Congress with 40 seats. The huge presence of Vokkaliga community has traditionally favoured Congress, whose former Chief Minister SM Krishna, was used to be considered a very popular leader of the community. The 85-year-old Krishna, who has now joined the BJP, could be the key to BJP's success in the region. BJP and JD(S) will be looking together to gobble most of the seats in this region and eat into Congress vote share.
While the Congress hopes to take this region with ease, any alliance engineered by the BJP and JD(S) behind the scenes could eat into the vote share of the Congress.
Hyderabad-Karnataka
Reddy brothers of BJP have enjoy political heft in this region, which has a huge Lingayat presence. In 2013, infighting among BJP leaders and the huge scam allegations left BJP high and dry in Bellari. But this time the state leadership is putting up a tough, united stand. Congress will be looking to latch on to the goodwill among the Lingayats, whom it has awarded with a minority religion tag.
The Lingayats are considered politically powerful in the state. Classified as Other Backward Classes, they are considered the single-largest community in the state. Their population is estimated to be anywhere between 11.5 percent and 19 percent. Their influence spread across several regions, not just Hyderabad-Karnataka region only, is widely believed to be decisive in nearly half of the 224 Assembly constituencies in Karnataka.
Coastal
In 2013, the coastal areas were a nightmare for the BJP. It managed to bag only one out of five seats Udupi, and couldn't get even one out of eight seats in Dakshina Kannada. But thanks to a lot of polarisation in the area, the coastal region has become quite favourable to the BJP. Coastal region may not be the most significant in Karnataka with Uttara Kannada, Dakshina Kannada, Udupi and Chikmagalur together account for 24 of Karnataka’s 224 assembly seats. But a sustained communal campaign in the region could favour BJP when the state goes to polls in May.
Central Karnataka
This is the other region in which BJP witnessed a washout. The party won just 2 out of 32 assembly seats in the region. Congress, with 18 seats across Tumkur, Davangere, Chitradurga & Shimoga districts will be looking more confident this time. JD(S) with 10 seats from this region, will be looking to expand its past tally. BS Yeddyurappa who fought from Shimoga and won by a margin of over three-and-a-half lakh votes in 2013, will be BJP's trump card in this region.
Mumbai-Karnataka
Another Lingayat dominated region. The BJP has been trying to call Congress' decision to grant a minority religion status to Lingayats an "election gimmick" and it will hope that its campaign is bought well in this region. BJP will also be banking on the political prowess of BS Yedurappa who is a Lingayat himself and was able to snatch a significant share of BJP's seats and restrict it to under 40 seats in 2013, after forming his own party Karnataka Janata Paksha which later merged with BJP.
Bangalore
BJP has traditionally been strong in the urban pockets of Bangalore region. It got 17 out of 28 seats in 2013, and won most seats in 2008 assembly and 2014 general polls also. With Modi about to embark on a two week long campaign trail in Karnataka, this will be an important region where Modi will look to maximise his party's influence. Congress may look to secure votes of minorities and upper class votes, through its development plank.
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