Tamil Nadu politics has been the core attraction in India since the late 1960s. As early as 1967, the Congress was kicked out of power from state following the rise of regional politics. Again the state attracted attention in 1996, when the breakaway faction of the Congress led by the late GK Moopanar allied with the DMK and swept the state.
Tamil Nadu is one of the important states for the poll not only due to its large number of 39 seats, but also for the political developments being taken in the state at eleventh hour before the Lok Sabha poll. Due to many reasons, the Tamil Nadu politics hogged the limelight for long.
The BJP has forged a grand alliance in Tamil Nadu. This is the most ambitious grand alliance by the BJP in any state for the 16th Lok Sabha poll. In Bihar too the BJP has tried its best to compensate the loss of JDU by forging alliance with Ramvilas Paswan's Party the LJP and the local low profile but strong grass root level leader Upendra Kushwaha's RLSP.
In Tamil Nadu, this is the biggest achievement by the BJP in pre-election season. It has almost forged alliance with most of the parties which take side in pre election season to ride on anti-incumbency wave in state politics besides the national too.
This situation is the win-win scenario for Jayalalithaa. The anti-Jayalalithaa vote is being divided in parts. Now the anti-Jayalalithaa vote is being divided into the INC, DMK and the NDA. This is the sufficient for Jayalalithaa to have a say in poll. Even Alagiri factor was enough sufficient to give most needed impetus to Jayalalithaa during the polls but the evolving political scenario in state is a big comfort for Jayalalithaa.
Among the many regional players who are competing against each other for the best performance is now confined to Mamata v/s Jayalalithaa. Nitish Kumar, Mulayam Singh Yadav and Naveen Patnaik seem have lost the race even before the counting.
Jayalalithaa has some long term political planning to go with the present political scenario. Since in TN has a revolving chair of five year tenure for both the DMK and the AIADMK, the voters automatically opt for the other party due to anti-incumbency factor and the other political developments.
Since there is a creation of new vote bank for the BJP or the NDA in state politics which is a big comfort for the AIADMK while a big headache for DMK group. If the NDA remains intact till 2016 assembly poll then the fight will be between the three groups instead of two like past several polls. The NDA will divide the anti-incumbency vote of the DMK like the PRP did in Andhra Pradesh in 2009 and the YSR bounced back to power defeating the TDP without any hiccup.
So the main benefit of this political development will be in 2016 assembly poll for Jaya. It is very unlikely that Jaya will go for the Prime Minister's post as she does not want to handle to coalition politics. So her main target is 2016 assembly poll.
The biggest advantage for the NDA in southern India is the last minute support by the ruling AINRC of Puducherry. Puducherry and TN have the same political dimensions and the AIADMK formed its first government in Puducherry in 1974 even before it came to power in Tamil Nadu in 1977. It was the victory of Puducherry which has given much needed impetus to late MGR in 1977 TN poll. The victory in Puducherry has provided the late MGR a leverage over the ruling DMK in 1977.
Finally we cannot rule out the possibility of Jayalalithaa indirectly helping Modi. The Third Front cannot exist without her. If she doesn't take real interest the third Front, it will die even before the birth.
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