With the next Lok Sabha election scheduled to be held in early 2014, the parties have started to fine tune their strategies for the same. The CNN-IBN election tracker - a survey conducted by the CSDS showed the common man's mood in key states and the results reflect what will be the verdict if the elections were held today. Dr Sandeep Shastri, Pro Vice Chancellor of Jain University, on CNN-IBN's election tracker survey.
Q. There are two types of questions which media frames. For ex first one - Will Rahul Gandhi will make India superpower? Will UPA win again? And the other one - is Narendra Modi bad choice made by BJP? Does Muslim voters hate to vote Modi? Now I guess you understand what I am trying to say here. Its like making a verdict with putting a question mark. An psychological play with common man to manipulate his thoughts. Why does media do that? Asked by: mehruf
A. Mehruf when framing questions as part of the survey an effort is made to make it as objective as possible and avoid all bias. We did the same when framing the questions relating to Rahul Gandhi and Narendra Modi.
Q. Sir, according to your survey, how will the BJP fare in the states of Himachal, Uttarkhand, Haryana and Assam? Asked by: Oliver
A. We had a very small sample size in these states so we were not able to make a state based projection. In Himachal the two parties were evenly matched, anti incumbency seeming to be impacting the government image in Haryana.
Q. Doc, how do you react to statement of LK Adwani that BJP would break all records in 2014 election? Asked by: Shyam Vadalker
A. Shyam, Mr Advani may have had his own reasons to say that. Our Tracker Poll shows that if elections were held now, that does not seem to be the case
Q. Modi has already won election on social media. Do you think it could happen when people will actually cast there votes in 2014? Asked by: mehruf
A. Mehruf, social media represents a very small segment of the larger Indian electorate.
Q. As per your Secularism dominating the votes mood or today issue like price rise, corruption, governance and terrorism dominating voters mood? Asked by: Hari
A. The tracker poll shows that for citizens issues of price rise, unemployment, drinking water are the most important.
Q. In Minorities other than Muslims like Sikhs, Christians, Jains supporting Congress or BJP? Asked by: Hari
A. Hari it is difficult to make a generalization in this regard. My own view is that the minorities you refer to do not necessarily vote as a bloc. In the case of the Sikhs in Punjab, the Tracker Poll shows that the Akali Dal has considerable support among them.
Q. Even If survey predicted Modi to get more seats for BJP, but panelist in CNN-IBN contracting the survey when its come to Modi, Why? Asked by: Hari
A. Hari, the panelists on the channel have a right to express their individual opinions. The Tracker poll too showed that in some parts of India the support for Modi had grown. It is another matter whether it will translate itself into votes for BJP.
Q. Minorities seeing Secularism is bigger issue than price rise, corruption and Governance? Asked by: Hari
A. Hari for minorities too the issue of Price rise and unemployment are equally critical.
Q. BJP is saying they will win with majority this time and seems very confident about. sometimes it seems similar to their "India shining" campaign brimming with over-confidence. what is your take on this? Asked by: MI Sidd
A. Tracker Poll shows that the BJP has gained ground. This is however not enough to be able to secure a majority.
Q. If Telangana comes Congress will loose Andhra and TRS will get credit for Telangana state? It will go totally against Congress? Asked by: Hari
A. Hari, this fact seems to be weighing on the mind of Congress leaders too. The larger point is should creating a state be an issue to be decided keeping in mind short term electoral gains and losses.
Q. Is there a such a big rout for Congress in Andhra Pradesh? Is there a possibility of getting same results for Congress like in 2009? Asked by: Purvi Shah
A. 2009 results in AP for congress seem tough Purvi. Much would depend on how it handles the Telangana issue.
Q. Dear Sir, How many seats can BJP-Shiv Sena-MNS pre-poll alliance (if formed) hope to get in Maharashtra as opposed to Cong-NCP pre-poll alliance? Asked by: Apoorva Krishna Srivastava
A. Apoorva if MNS were to join the BJP-Shiva Sena combine it would definitely be to the advantage of the alliance and would adversely effect the Congress-NCP alliance especially in Mumbai-Thane which accounts for 9 seats.
Q. Is there a likelihood of very different result emerging as against predicted in the poll after campaigning - such as UPA 3 coming back in power or BJP getting more than 200 seats? Asked by: Mehul Shah
A. Mehul, Tracker Poll projected public mood as of now. Anything could happen in the next nine months or till such time as elections are held, New alliances could be formed... State elections due end of the year could set a trend ... choice of candidates could also have its impact as could the campaign.
Q. Dear Sir, In case Rayala-Telagana is formed with Hyderabad as UT, Will it help BJP gain seats in the new state (as a result of polarization against MIM)? Asked by: Apoorva Krishna Srivastava
A. Apoorva many believe it could help the BJP especially in Hyderabad - Secundarabd.
Q. Is there a undercurrent in favout of Modi/BJP? Asked by: Sandeep
A. Too early to predict Sandeep.
Q. Is there any chance that Modi can help BJP to get more than 200 seats and further do you see any scope of the NDA under Modi forming a Govt at the centre? Asked by: Arun
A. The Tracker poll seems to suggest that breaching the 200 mark seems to be a challenge. Narendra Modi's acceptability to an alliance is also a matter of debate. We have seem what the JDU has done and what the Shiva Sena leadership is saying clearly points out to the emerging trend.
Q. Vote on Social background: College Educated 35 percent voting for BJP, its shows future towards BJP? Asked by: Hari
A. The Tracker poll shows that the BJP vote share among the College educated has increased. Please remember they only constitute a segment of the population.
Q. Sir, I had seen how the trend is showing that the NCP-Congress look set to more or less hold on to Maharashtra. Wouldn't you think that anti-incumbency would greatly diminish their seat tally? Asked by: Vinayak Prabhu
A. Vinayak, typically anti-incumbency should effect the NCP-Congress in Maharashtra. Two factors seem to be in play. One the problems within the rival alliance and two the improved image of the state government in the last few months.
Q. Does any political party take the survey results in public domain seriously and analyse it and compare it with it's own assessment for corrective actions, if needed? Asked by: sundar1950in
A. Sundar, political parties do give credence to credible surveys and do budget it in their calculations.
Q. In relation to the voters' population of millions, the sample size of survey is reported as 20,000. Is this a sufficiently good size for statistical analysis? Asked by: sundar1950in
A. Sundar how big is the sample is not as important as how representative is the sample and what is the level of analysis one is doing. If you compare the sample demographics to the census data, you will notice the close match.
Q. Do not you think there is a grave danger of political parties financing opinion polls through back channels to get favorable results, and influencing public opinion? Asked by: Sumit Ahlawat
A. It could well happen, The Tracker Poll done by CNN IBN and the Hindu is done transparently by a research group which clearly is independent of any political affiliation.
Q. There is a non response rate of 51 percent. Is it uniform across the sample? How was this handled? Asked by: Krupakar
A. The no response rate varies from state to state and from question to question.
Q. Your election tracker results are quite realistic. however I feel the BJP has gained from the day this poll was conducted. don't you feel BJP would cross the 200 mark if Yeddyurappa joins back and the MNS also aligns with the NDA? Wont this change the prediction in Karnataka and Maharashtra? Asked by: AKS
A. AKS, Yeddyurappa's return will help the BJP consolidate anti-Congress votes and the MNS joining the alliance will work to their advantage. Will it help them cross 200 is difficult to say.
Q. There are some reports that media is trying to GUIDE the voters. Media says it is guided by the voters. Which one of this is nearer to factual position? Asked by: sundar1950in
A. The Tracker Poll is a barometer to measure public mood. Past studies have shown that voters are not effected in their vote choice by what surveys say.
Q. The Indian LS GE will be keenly watched by USA and China, for their own interests. Will there be any policy decisions of these governments affecting the outcome of the LS elections? Asked by: sundar1950in
A. On Foreign Policy matters there is often a consensus between the two major alliances. There may be a marginal difference in thrust.
Q. BJP leader has expressed happiness on the survey result and raised the expectations of the party. Will this lead to complacence in BJP? Asked by: sundar1950in
A. It is difficult for us those watching from the outside to know how it will impact a party internally.
Q. Does the survey give an indication of the voter's confidence to a particular party, in safeguarding the nation's security, from external aggression? Asked by: sundar1950in
A. There was no direct question in this regard in the survey. Past trends indicate that there has never been a question mark on the capacity of either alliance to defend the nation from foreign aggression.
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