With a pro-Chinese, anti-India government in the Maldives, China has done what was expected from it, fuelling further the hostility against New Delhi of the current president, Mohamed Muizzu. China has asserted its support for the sovereignty rights of India’s tiny neighbour. Muizzu was given a red-carpet welcome and China and the Maldives agreed to elevate ties to a strategic level of cooperation. Geopolitically known as Pakistan’s big brother, China is now attempting to play a similar role in the Maldives. China assures Malé (and indirectly conveys to India) that it firmly opposes any external interference in the Maldives’ internal affairs.
The result? Maldivian President Muizzu has escalated his anti-India stand after returning from China, issuing a March 15 ultimatum to New Delhi to recall its military personnel stationed there. This is very high anti-India rhetoric, considering it has only 77 unarmed military personnel deployed in the Maldives, engaged in humanitarian aid and medical evacuations through two helicopters and one Dornier aircraft provided by India.
China is also behind the Maldives’ financial struggles. Most of the loans were given to the nation during the reign of the previous pro-China president, Abdulla Yameen. China holds 60% of the Maldivian sovereign debt. Despite being only a USD 5.5 billion strong economy, the World Bank predicts that by 2026, the country will have to service a record USD 1 billion in external debt. The IMF also adds that the country is at high risk of external debt distress.
The Maldives’ current problems trace their origin to a growing dependence on Chinese debt and a deepening Maldivian handicap is a perfect fit in China’s designs to encircle India. China follows a ‘string of pearls’ policy in the Indian Ocean region to surround India, aiming to create commercial bases in the countries around, which could be converted into military ones in the future through Beijing’s debt trap and coercive diplomacy.
STRAINED RELATIONSHIP
India and China have been known to share strained ties for the past seven decades. In 1950, China captured India’s Aksai Chin area, measuring 38,000 sq km. India was caught off guard when it became an unprepared nation in a war in 1962. In 1963, China obtained another 5,800 sq km of area in the Shaksgam Valley, which is Indian territory but illegally occupied by Pakistan during the 1947 partition.
China has never recognised Arunachal Pradesh and Ladakh as parts of India. The country issues stapled visas for Arunachal Pradesh and J&K residents, considering these China’s parts, calling Arunachal Pradesh South Tibet. India considers China the main hurdle in obtaining memberships in the UNSC and NSG.
China pushes Pakistan’s anti-India policy further by supporting it with weapons and economic aid and backing anti-India terrorists based in Pakistan. China has been a prominent voice opposing UN efforts to label them as globally designated terrorists. Along with Pakistan, it opposed the revocation of Article 370 sections from J&K. China’s flagship CPEC passes through India’s land in Pakistan-occupied Jammu & Kashmir. The country has supported many terrorists active in N\northeast India in the past.
WHY DID CHINA PRAISE INDIA? WHAT LIES BENEATH?
Therefore, the approach taken to praise India in one of its official publications, Global Times, seems contrary to China’s hostile policy so far. An opinion piece in the publication, praising India, was aimed at portraying New Delhi as a “world mentor” free from “Western clutches”.
India is currently the fastest-growing economy globally and is set to become the third-largest soon. As the most populous nation with a thriving market base and the largest working-age population, India is in the driving stage for the world economy and stability. Its rapid economic growth indicates it is on a trajectory of commercial and military advancement, similar to what China achieved in the recent past.
So, the rare positive word from China seems to have an honest appreciation of India’s growing stature in the world, but here, we cannot ignore the fact that the realpolitik behind it could also be a ‘Chinese reservation’.
CHINA’S GRUDGES AND LIMITATIONS
China’s President Xi Jinping envisions a multipolar world, not dominated solely by the Western bloc but also by nations of the Global South, with many emerging as possible global poles in the future. China wants a shift in the global geopolitical direction from the developed to the developing world and sees itself in a leadership position in that change.
This is unlike in the past when China aspired to replace the US as the sole global superpower but realpolitik dictated otherwise.
China’s economic growth is slowing down, and projections show that it is not expected to retain the high growth rates, an annual average of 10%, seen in the past. Coupled with an ageing workforce and declining population, this signals a shift from rapid economic growth to a different policy approach now: create blocs and try to make them centred on China like SCO or BRICS or force own geopolitical interests through the Chinese debt trap.
China aspires to lead the Global South as well. It befriends nations like Syria and Venezuela, calls ties with their dictators a strategic partnership, and increases its stake in West Asia politics.
China, run by Xi Jinping, would never want India to share close ties with Western nations. The country despises initiatives like Quad or IPEF, or deepening India-US ties. Beijing knows that India is the key to the Western nations’ anti-China plans. India’s future economic and military might, tied with the Western nations, will be a big challenge for China if this materialises. So, when the country saw some points of contention between India and the Western world, it just tried to read ‘in between the lines’ by praising India on the stand taken.
NO FRIEND, NO FOE
Geopolitics is often called a game with no permanent friends or foes. Former United States Representative William Clay once said, “This is quite a game, politics. There are no permanent enemies and no permanent friends, only permanent interests.”
Prime Minister Narendra Modi, in a recent interview with the Financial Times, reinforced this fact. India is actively working on information provided by the United States on the alleged murder plot of a Khalistani terrorist involving some Indians, but these incidents are not expected to derail India-US ties driven by mutual interests. Also, India’s stand on the Russia-Ukraine war dates back to February 2022, and PM Modi went on a landmark state visit to the US in June 2023.
India has taken a neutral approach to the Russia-Ukraine war, calling for dialogues and discussions, and has decided not to join the trade pillar of the IPEF until further discussions. Khalistan terrorism and a plot to murder a Khalistani terrorist in the US are other points of discord between India, the US, and Canada. India demands Western nations to respect its sovereignty and not allow anti-India terror elements to be active there.
But this doesn’t mean the blocs led by the Western nations and India will have strained ties because of these incidents. It is not in their geopolitical interests. The Tiananmen Massacre incident serves as an example. Apart from criticisms and temporary restrictions, nothing more was done by Western nations and many other influential countries globally. The world then needed a Chinese factory. Going back further, it was a Cold War necessity that brought the US and isolated Communist China together.
Also, unlike China, India is the world’s largest democracy working spectacularly for the past seven decades, much like the Western nations. This makes them a better fit when they need each other. Also, the world always needs at least one rapidly growing major economy, something that China was in the past and that India is today.
GEOPOLITICAL OPTICS
A world power needs multi-alignment. A nation seen as a world power is also a soft power projecting nation exporting its culture and tales of its economic and military might. China, with a dictatorial regime, attempted to achieve this, but India, with its democratic ethos, can do much better on this geopolitical optics, whether Beijing praises it or not. China is known as a hostile, expansionist country while India achieved its independence through Mahatma Gandhi’s non-violence.
India, like China, also advocates for a multipolar world. It also wants to lead the Global South movement and is better placed than China to achieve it. China might follow coercive diplomacy as most Global South countries are victims of Chinese debt, but India has always led the Global South movement by acting as its international voice. Last year, pushed by India, the African Union was made a G20 member in a further expansion of its Global South initiative. India’s ties and confrontations with Western nations and the larger world are geopolitical optics for both, and China should know from its history. It is not going to damage ties.
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