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Halfway through the Lok Sabha polls of 2024, News18 looks at some of the electoral contests in the past two general elections in 2014 and 2019 that were settled by a margin of below 5 per cent. Five years ago, when the BJP secured 37.36% of the votes polled nationally, it won 42 seats with that margin. In contrast, its rival, the Congress party, won 19 seats with a margin of less than 5 per cent. Talking about the 2019 elections in general, the BJP bagged the highest vote percentage secured by any political party since the 1989 national elections. In the process, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s party won 303 of the 543 Lok Sabha seats. The Congress had to be satisfied with just 52.
Table 1: Seats where BJP won with a margin of less than 5% in 2019
Of the 42 such seats that the BJP won in 2019, 14 were in Uttar Pradesh (the most), and six each in West Bengal and Odisha. In Karnataka, four seats fell in this category. The closest race was in UP’s Machhlishahr constituency, where the BJP candidate won by a margin of 0.02 per cent.
Table 2: Seats where Congress won with a margin of less than 5% in 2019
Of the 19 seats that the Congress won with a margin of less than 5% in 2019, four were in Kerala (the most), followed by three in Telangana and two each in Punjab and Chhattisgarh. The closest race was in Odisha’s Koraput constituency, where the Congress won by a margin of 0.33 per cent.
Next, let’s look at 2014, when PM Modi-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) came to power. That year, the BJP won 282 Lok Sabha seats, of which 29 were secured with less than 5 per cent margin. Meanwhile, of the total 44 seats won by the Congress, 20 fell in this category.
Table 3: Seats where BJP won with a margin of less than 5% in 2014
Of the 29 such seats won by the BJP 10 years ago, six were in Uttar Pradesh (the most), followed by five in Bihar, and three seats each in Karnataka and Chhattisgarh.
Table 4: Seats where Congress won with a margin of less than 5% in 2014
Of the 20 such seats that chose a Congress victor a decade ago, six were in Kerala (the most), followed by four in Karnataka. In Assam, two seats fell in this category.
This year, the wait is on. After a seven-phase election exercise, on June 4, the country will get to know how many such seats will go to the BJP, or the Congress, or their allies.
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