New Delhi: Today is the day of Exit Polls. At least over a dozen news channels (some have print partners) are coming out with their Exit poll predictions for Bihar in the evening. Most of the pre-poll surveys have predicted a victory for Nitish-Lalu-Congress grand alliance in the polls. Some credible surveys with a history of fair assessment have also predicted a clear win for the JDU-RJD-Congress in Bihar. Some exactly the opposite. Most agree that "it is too close to call".
CNN-IBN Axis pre-poll has predicted a clear victory for the JDU-RJD-Congress. ABP News has predicted the NDA win, India Today-Cicero Poll has gone in favour of the grand alliance, News Nation has predicted a simple majority for the grand alliance & India TV – Cvoter pre-poll survey has predicted a close contest in which the BJP led NDA has a slight lead over the grand alliance.
A closer look at the previous pre-polls and exit polls of State Assemblies and Lok Sabha elections done by various media houses throw up some interesting facts. In 2009 most opinion polls conducted by major poll agencies gave the UPA an edge over the NDA, but none were predicted to get absolute majority. The UPA including the Fourth front was, however, predicted by a few to get seats close to majority. The opinion polls reckoned that other regional parties would play an important role by winning a substantial number of seats. In results where the "Fourth Front" is indicated, the SP, RJD and LJP are not being counted in the UPA figure.
Pre-poll surveys – 2009 Lok Sabha
CNN-IBN – CSDS gave Congress led UPA 215-235 seats, BJP led NDA 165-185 seats and the others 125-155 seats. Star TV – Nielsen gave UPA 257, NDA 184 and Others 96. It later revised its figures. CVoter – The Week gave UPA 234 seats, NDA 186 seats and Third Front 112 seats. Times of India gave UPA 201 seats, NDA 195 seats and the others 147 seats.
Exit polls – 2009 Lok Sabha
CNN-IBN – CSDS exit polls predicted the UPA lead. It gave UPA 185-205 seats, NDA 165-185 seats, Third Front 110-130 seats and Others 25-35 seats. Star – Neilsen gave UPA 199 seats, NDA 196 seats, Third Front 100 seats and Others 36 seats. India TV –Cvoter gave UPA 189-201, NDA 183-195, Third Front 105-121 seats respectively.
But, the actual results proved all these pre-poll and exit polls wrong. The ruling UPA retained power with 262 seats. The NDA got just 159 seats and Third Front got 79 seats. However most pollsters were able to predict the trend correctly.
2014 Lok Sabha poll predictions
The same pattern continued even in the high decibel 2014 Lok Sabha elections. Most pre-poll and exit polls predicted Narendra Modi led BJP win. Except Today’s Chanakya, no other media house got the results right. Most predictions were conservative. Only Today’s Chanakya had predicted that the BJP would get around 291 seats and the NDA would get around 340 seats. When the votes were counted, the BJP got 283 seats and the NDA got 326 seats.
Even in Delhi's Assembly elections – 2013 Today’s Chanakya had predicted that the BJP would get 29 seats and the AAP would get 31 seats and the Congress 10 seats respectively. Finally, AAP got 28 seats and the BJP 32. In Madhya Pradesh, Today’s Chanakya had predicted that the BJP would get 161 seats, which turned out to be spot on.
Assembly polls in 2014 and 2015 – Predictions
Maharashtra
Today's Chanakya gave 151 seats plus or minus 9 seats to BJP, 71 seats plus or minus 9 to Shiv Sena, 27 seats plus or minus 5 to Congress, 28 seats plus or minus 5 to NCP and 11 seats plus or minus 5 to others. Times Now gave 129 seats to BJP, 56 seats to Shiv Sena, 43 seats to Congress, 36 seats to NCP and 24 seats to MNS and Others. ABP-Nielsen gave 127 seats to BJP, 77 to Shiv Sena, 40 to Congress, 34 to NCP and 10 to others. India TV – Cvoter gave 124-134 seats to BJP, 51-61 seats to Shiv Sena, 38-48 seats to Congress, 31-41 seats to NCP, 9-15 seats to MNS and Others each.
Finally BJP won 122 seats, Shiv Sena 63, Congress 42, NCP 41 and MNS just 1 seats. Once again the pollsters got the exact seats wrong. But, they got the trends rights.
Delhi Assembly polls 2015
Almost all got both pre-poll and exit polls wrong. The closest to the actual number of 67 was Axis exit poll prediction of 53 for the AAP. The second closest was Today’s Chanakya’s 48 seats for the AAP. India TV, India Today, ABP News, News Nation, Data Mineria and many others either got their figures totally wrong or underestimated the AAP performance. Shocking all pollsters, the AAP literally swept the polls by winning 67 of total 70 seats. The managed to get just 3 seats and the Congress got no seats at all.
Why surveys can go wrong
Professor Yogendra Yadav, who is considered the best in the business (he no longer does poll predictions) feels that poll surveys can go wrong for various reasons. Speaking at an India Today Conclave he said “the problem is a lack of professionalism and transparency. Very often, opinion polls try to hide their unprofessionalism and lack of hard work by hiding behind the argument that India is different. But if your sample is truly random and if your questionnaire is worded properly and if you do fieldwork and analyse it well with statistical techniques, there is nothing so strange about Indians. Indians are more willing than others to be interviewed”.
In the same conference former Chief Election Commissioner (CEC) of India SY Quraishi said that the Election Commission was seeking a ban on opinion polls as "all parties have been seeking a ban on them since pollsters came to them promising to fudge".
"They were ready to manipulate margin of error, increase the number of seats, manipulate the sample size, facilitate publishing of opinion polls and give two reports - one honest and the other fudged," he said.
Who wins Bihar Assembly election? Only the voters know the exact result. Let’s wait till Sunday.
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